Can AIADMK Win Tamil Nadu for a second time: Prannoy Roy analysis, Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2016,Tamil Nadu Survey,Tamil Nadu Vote swing and seats,AIADMK,DMK,Vote share

Can AIADMK Win Tamil Nadu for a second time: Prannoy Roy analysis, Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2016,Tamil Nadu Survey,Tamil Nadu Vote swing and seats,AIADMK,DMK,Vote share

Ms Jayalalithaa's AIADMK swept the 2011 assembly polls and the national election in 2014, but Tamil Nadu has never voted the same party back to power since 1984. Regional giants the AIADMK and DMK have alternately won assembly elections.

Also, parties that have won general elections in the state have traditionally seen a fall in vote share in the next assembly elections, a disquieting trend for the AIADMK, which had won 203 seats in 2011 and the equivalent of 217 assembly seats in the general elections two years ago.

The ruling AIADMK with its minor allies has, as the state heads into elections on May 16, a vote share in the range of 38 per cent to 44 per cent - average 42 per cent - based on historical data and current alliances. That would mean a huge majority at 195 seats.  

The DMK-Congress alliance has an average 31 per cent vote share, which would translate to only 46 seats. The third front has 14 per cent and two seats and others 13 per cent and nine seats.  

But only a three per cent swing away from Jayalalithaa in favour of the DMK's alliance will mean the latter jumping to 62 seats, a five per cent swing to 99 seats and a 5.75 per cent swing to 120 seats which would give it a majority, with the AIADMK getting 94 seats.

A 7 per cent swing from the AIADMK to the DMK would mean the latter winning 143 seats and Ms Jayalalithaa's party getting 70seats. Most states do not see 7 per cent swings in vote from one election to another, but in Tamil Nadu, the average swing since 1984 has been 10 per cent.

• Prev
• Next