India Today CICERO opinion poll: BJP likely to form govt in Delhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's winning chariot is all set to roll in style into Delhi where the BJP is likely to form the government by winning a comfortable majority on its own, an opinion poll conducted jointly by the India Today Group and CICERO has projected.

The BJP could bag anywhere between 34 and 40 seats as per the projections made by CICERO. The party appears ready to return to power in the national capital after 16 long years.

While the BJP might have emerged as the first choice for the majority of Delhiites, Kejriwal still remains the most preferred Chief Ministerial face with 35 per cent of the respondents voting for him.

The AAP leader beats hands down his nearest rival former BJP CM candidate Dr Harsh Vardhan who emerged as the second most popular choice for the top post getting 23 per cent votes. But unlike 2013, the BJP has not projected its chief ministerial candidate yet.

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The India Today Group and CICERO Delhi RCS Tracker Poll-2015 (Wave-II), also shows that the BJP is likely to get 40 per cent of the vote share which is one per cent higher than the Delhi tracker poll wave I (conducted in December 2014) and 6.9 per cent higher than the BJP's vote share in the December 2013 assembly election result.

Going by the results of the opinion poll it seems that the Modi phenomenon has hit the right chords in the national capital, just as it did in all the four states where assembly elections were held recently and the BJP managed to form the government except for Jammu and Kashmir.

Though the BJP might get anywhere between 34 and 40 seats, the difference in vote share between the party and AAP is only 4 per cent. According to the opinion poll, the Arvind Kejriwalled party is likely to finish second with a 36 per cent vote share.

AAP's vote share in wave-II opinion poll is the same as in the Delhi tracker poll wave-I. Though AAP's vote share has increased by 6.5 per cent since the December 2013 assembly election in which the rookie party's vote share was 29.5 per cent.

The results of the wave-II opinion poll show that AAP is likely to get between 25-31 seats, a far cry from the magical number of 36 required by any party to form the government in Delhi. The Congress will get marginalised further winning anything between 3 and 5 seats, according to the opinion poll.

While Kejriwal and Harsh Vardhan remained top two choices for the CM's post, former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit, who held the post for three consecutive terms, was preferred by only 6 per cent respondents. Senior Congress leader Arvinder Singh Lovely stood at the fourth position with 5 per cent votes.

The recent Uber cab rape has once again made women safety the main issue in Delhi with 20 per cent respondents saying that it was their top concern. Corruption and water problem also figure prominently among the key grouses of Delhi voters with 17 and 12 per cent respondents making these their top concern.

The performance of the Narendra Modi-led government is likely to affect the voting pattern in Delhi. As many as 36 per cent of the respondents felt that Modi government has performed more than was expected while 30 per cent felt it was performing as per their expectations. Modi's Swachh Bharat Abhiyan has had a positive outcome with an overwhelming 79 per cent of respondents saying that they have started keeping their area cleaner than before.

The BJP government's decision to pay compensation to those affected by anti-Sikh riots may not help the party in a big way as 40 per cent of all respondents and 57 per cent of Sikh respondents felt that justice can only be done by punishing the rioters. The move was also seen as vote bank politics by 36 per cent of all respondents and 41 per cent of Sikh respondents. While 42 per cent respondents said that AAP should be given a chance to form the government, 41 per cent felt that the chance should go to the BJP and only 16 per cent felt that the Congress should get a chance this time.

• The opinion poll shows that 36 per cent felt that AAP performed more than expectations in their 49-day rule while 35 per cent felt that it performed as per expectation.
• Young voters seem to equally like AAP and the BJP with 39 per cent respondents among both 18-25 and 26-35 age groups voting for both the parties.
• It is in the older age group where the tilt is towards the BJP with 40 per cent among 36-45 voting for the BJP. The BJP is also the first choice for both male and female voters with 39 and 41 per cent respectively preferring the saffron party.