Delhi polls 2015: Aam Aadmi Party may win most of the Muslim concentrated seats, says CSDS survey, Delhi Election, Delhi Election 2015, Delhi Assembly Election 2015, Delhi Election News

Delhi polls 2015: Aam Aadmi Party may win most of the Muslim concentrated seats, says CSDS survey
NEW DELHI: With the contest between the BJP and Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly elections almost certain to go down to the wire, the Muslim community, which comprises 13% of the population, is set to play a decisive role. In the 2013 elections, support from Muslims had proved to be the only consolation for the Congress party; so much so that four of the eight Congress candidates who were elected were Muslims from Muslim concentrated seats.

A post-poll survey conducted by CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) in 2013 indicated that 53% of the Muslim voters voted for Congress. While this was much less than the two-thirds vote the Congress had been getting among Muslims in previous elections in Delhi, it was nonetheless more than twice the party's average vote share.

What explains this Muslim support for the Congress, that too when all other communities had deserted it? Are things likely to change this time? It could be argued that the Congress was able to retain its traditional Muslim support in December 2013 not out of any love for it, but because the Muslim community at that time was not sure whether AAP was in a position to defeat the BJP. Once the Muslims saw the winning potential of AAP they shifted their allegiance in considerable numbers from the Congress to AAP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

• However, the shift did not take the form of a complete consolidation as 56% of Muslims voted for AAP and 39% for the Congress, resulting in a division of votes in some assembly segments.

This tentative shift of Muslim votes towards AAP in 2014 could well intensify and become more definite in the upcoming assembly elections as the Congress has been unable to stage a recovery and AAP has emerged as the main alternative to the BJP in Delhi. The only thing that could perhaps work in favour of the Congress is that the party has renominated all its four Muslim MLAs who were elected in 2013. Their local influence may arrest the Muslim drift towards AAP, particularly if they are seen to be in a better position than the AAP candidates to take on the BJP.

This doesn't mean that the Muslims of Delhi don't have other concerns, and that local issues such as electricity, roads, water supply and sanitation won't matter to them while voting. They certainly will. But the foremost concern of a Muslim voter will in all likelihood continue to be ensuring BJP's loss. After all, the Modi government hasn't given the community any good reason to change its opinion about the BJP.

There are five assembly seats in Delhi where Muslims account for over 40% of the total population and in a position to determine the electoral outcome almost singlehandedly. These are Chandni Chowk, Matia Mahal, Ballimaran, Okhla and Seelampur. In both the 2008 and 2013 elections, the BJP could not win any of these five seats. Four were won by the Congress and one (Matia Mahal) by Shoaib Iqbal (who is contesting on a Congress ticket this time).

In the Lok Sabha elections, the Muslim voters shifted allegiance and it was AAP which led in three of these assembly segments. However, in Ballimaran and Chandni Chowk, a massive division of votes between AAP and Congress saw the BJP taking the lead.

There are another five assembly seats where Muslims are between 30 and 40% of the total population. These are Mustafabad, Babarpur, Seemapuri, Shahdara and Rithala. Here, too, a division of votes between the Congress and AAP in the Lok Sabha elections resulted in the BJP being ahead on four seats.

 src:economictimes

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