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ET-TNS Opinion Poll 2015: AAP likely to walk away with 36-40 seats while BJP could win 28-32, finds survey

economic times opinion poll for delhi election

NEW DELHI: Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appear to have reversed the pro-BJP mood in Delhi and could win a simple majority if assembly elections were to be held now, shows the latest opinion poll carried out by polling firm TNS for ET.

AAP will get 36-40 seats in the 70-member assembly with a vote share of 49% while BJP will win 28-32 seats, says the survey conducted in the last week of January. Delhi goes to polls on February 7, and results of the keenly watched contest will be declared three days later.

ET-TNS Opinion poll : Seat Projections

Party

2015 Jan end Survey

2015 Nov end Survey

2013 Dec

AAP

38

24

28

BJP

30

45

31

Cong

2

2

8

The findings of the poll of 3,260 respondents in 16 assembly constituencies are in sharp contrast to an earlier ET-TNS poll conducted in November-December last year that had shown BJP comfortably romping home with 43-47 seats.

  • AAP was forecast to win 22-25 seats then, while Congress was expected to eke out anywhere between zero and three seats. Congress is now forecast to win 2-4 seats.

The period between the two opinion polls saw the Ghar Wapsi issue snowball into a major political controversy, the Uber taxi rape case and more recently the visit of US President Barack Obama.

The intervening period also saw Kiran Bedi being named as BJP's chief ministerial candidate, apparently to counter AAP leader Kejriwal's anti-corruption credentials and give voters a fresh face that could also deflect criticism that the party did not have a credible CM candidate in the Capital.

But that decision appears to have backfired on BJP, with Kejriwal, who was the most preferred to be the chief minister among voters in various polls, widening his lead.

The latest ET-TNS survey showed that Kejriwal continued to be the most popular chief ministerial choice for Delhiites with 54% of voters preferring him, a 16 percentage point lead over his one-time comrade and a 12 percentage point increase from the previous poll. Bedi and Kejriwal were colleagues in the Anna Hazare-led India Against Corruption campaign that convulsed Delhi in 2012.

Kejriwal Still top choice for CM's Post

Arvind kejriwal

54%

Kiran Bedi

38%

Ajay Maken

6%

Political analysts and opinion polls have started to speak of the electoral contest, viewed not very long ago as a slam dunk victory for BJP that won in all of Delhi's assembly segments during the May 2014 general elections, reversing in recent days.

  • A separate opinion poll by ABP News and Nielsen on Monday also forecast AAP as the clear winner with 35 seats and 37% of the vote share while BJP was seen winning 29 seats with 33% vote share.

Santosh Desai, a social commentator, says the momentum has shifted towards AAP in the past few days but it still is a close contest. "Kiran Bedi in her interactions comes across as inflexible, as someone who is reading out from a fixed script or trying hard to push her way. Her nomination as the party's CM candidate may have crystalised the assumption that BJP's plans for Delhi are shaky," he said

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