ABP News Nielsen-Opinion poll: BJP unlikely to reach majority mark in Delhi poll, AAP to get 28 seats,ABP News Nielsen Delhi opinion poll, Delhi Opinion poll 2015, ABP News- Nielsen opinion poll 2014 2015

ABP News Nielsen-Opinion poll: BJP unlikely to reach majority mark in Delhi poll, AAP to get 28 seats

New Delhi: As per ABP-Nielsen’s latest Opinion poll, Narendra Modi-led BJP is projected to win 34 seats in Delhi Polls but is falling short by 2 to reach the magical number

Talking of Arvind Kejriwal led AAP, it again stands at 28 seats this time - the actual number achieved in 2013’s assembly elections. In not a good condition, Congress party is managing somehow to get 8 seats similar to 2013. Independents and Others are left with nil this time unlike the previously when they at least gathered 3 seats.

• It’s worrisome for the BJP as according to our Opinion Polls in November and December the party was predicted to win 46 and 45 seats respectively. However, this time it has come down to just 34 which is seen as a sharp fall.

• The good news for AAP is that there is a rise of almost 10 seats in their tally and are second in race. It was projected to win 18 and 17 seats respectively in November and December conducted Surveys.

However, it boils down to the question that which side will form the government? As Others and Independents remain on zero so the question of their support doesn’t arise. So far there is no such declaration from the BJP side about taking support from any of them as they are striving for complete majority. It doesn’t seem like that they would take the support of AAP or Congress.

On the other hand, AAP has taken support from the Congress last time which was questioned by all. In ABP’s special show GhoshanaPatra AAP chief replied to the question, “We took support of Congress to form government only after taking consent of people.” Will he follow the same path this time as well? If he takes support of 8 MLAs again from the Congress then again his party would form the government and would put him in the driver’s seat. The AAP chief told us on Thursday that if given a mandate, he wouldn’t step down in 49 days come what may. 

Let’s look at the vote share percentage of BJP which stands at 35% and AAP at 31%, Congress has 24% while Others get 10%.

‘BJP knows how to run a government’

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his January 10 election campaign rally held in Ramleela Maidan in the capital, said that while BJP knows how to run a government, Aam Aadmi Party lacks that experience. Do you agree, he questioned the audience

The result from our Survey is, ‘More than half of the respondents (56%) agreed with Modi's claim that BJP knows how to run a government & Aam Aadmi Party lacks that experience, while 43% disagreed on the same.’

Preferred choice for CM

Arvind Kejriwal is seen as the most preferred CM candidate in Delhi. He gets 54%, Harsh Vardhan 29%, Sheila Dikshit 5%, Jagdish Mukhi 3%.

However, Narendra Modi leads the race as the most popular leader in Delhi. He gets 49% of votes, Kejriwal gets 42% while Rahul Gandhi gets 7%.

Which section of society intends to vote for AAP?

Majority (59%) of the Muslim respondents are intending to vote for AAP.

When compared with the opinion poll conducted in December 2014, AAP has also gained support from higher income groups. Also women respondents intending to vote for AAP are on  the rise.

Inflation, Sewage/sanitation and unavailability of drinking water remain the top 3 issues faced by the respondents in their respective constituencies post elections.

The current survey conducted by ABP News-Nielsen was done across 70 constituencies and the sample size achieved was 6,414.

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