Uttar pradesh India Today Axis Opinion poll Election Survey Result 2017 BJP Winning Exit poll
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- Category: UP Political News
- Last Updated: Thursday, 05 January 2017 11:31
Uttar pradesh India Today Axis Opinion poll Survey Result 2017 BJP Winning, Exit Polls
According to the opinion poll released on 04 jan 2017 BJP is winning with landslide victory and getting nearly 206-216 seats. with BSP distant second.
- Also Read : SP Complete Candidate List
- Also Read : BSP Complete Candidate List
- Also Read : See Summary of all Opinion Poll here.
- Read More: UP Election Schedule Announced Details here -7 PhasesFeb 11, Feb 15, feb 19, Feb 23, Feb 27, Mar 4 and Mar 8. CountingonMarch 11.
Sample Size: 21,000 (Survey conducted in december after demonitisation)India Today Axis Opinion poll
| India Today Axis Opinion poll- Jan 17 | ||
| Party | Seats | Vote Share |
| BJP | 206-216 | 33% |
| SP | 92-97 | 26% |
| BSP | 79-85 | 25% |
| INC | 5-9 | 6% |
October 2016 Opinion poll by India today - axis Out of the 403 assembly seats in the state, BJP is projected to win 170-183 seats while the BSP can expect to win 115-124 seats.While incumbent SP is expected to come third with 94-103.
METHODOLOGY
From September 5 to October 5, a team of 60 surveyors conducted face-to-face interviews with 22,231 respondents in the 403 assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh. The pollsters targeted a sample size of 50 in every borough.
| India Today Axis Opinion poll | ||
| Party | Seats | Vote Share |
| BJP | 170-183 | 31% |
| BSP | 115-124 | 28% |
| SP | 94-103 | 25% |
| INC | 8--12 | 6% |
| Other | 2--6 | 10% |
Maywati is Most Desirable CM Face
| Best CM Choice | |
| Akhilesh Yadav | 27% |
| Mayawati | 31% |
| Rajnath Singh | 18% |
| Yogi Adityanath | 14% |
Do you agree with congress mukt Bharat?
| India Today Axis Opinion poll | |
| Agree | 29% |
| Don’t Agree | 54% |
| Don’t Know | 17% |
BIJLI, SADAK, PAANI
One of the key highlights of this opinion poll is that almost one-third of the respondents said that they would primarily consider the performance of the central government while deciding whom to vote for in the forthcoming assembly election.
The Ram Mandir issue seems to be dead as far as voting preferences are concerned. Surprisingly, 0 per cent of the respondents said that the Ram Mandir issue would determine who they vote for. Development is by far the biggest issue for voters in this election.
Employment opportunities, road, electricity and drinking water are the other big issues that voters want parties to focus on. When asked what should the BJP focus on, an overwhelming majority (88 per cent) of the respondents said that the party should focus on development. Cow protection was a priority only for 1 per cent of the total respondents.
HIGH ANTI-INCUMBENCY
The Samajwadi Party government in Uttar Pradesh faces a high level of anti-incumbency, according to the findings. Pollsters from Axis asked respondents how satisfied they were with the government across 17 different parameters -- from the condition of local roads, electricity, drinking water, health facilities, education, law and order to employment opportunities.
On an average, 59 per cent of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the SP administration over the last four-and-a-half years. Less than one-third of the voters said they were satisfied.
DECODING UP'S CASTE METRIX
The BJP seems to be gaining in Uttar Pradesh because the party is being increasingly backed by the Other Backward Castes in the state with 44 per cent of the non-Yadav OBCs saying that they will vote for the lotus symbol.
The upper-castes of Uttar Pradesh also seem to be solidly backing the BJP, with 61 per cent pledging their support.
Meanwhile, the SP is holding on to its core Yadav (67 per cent) vote bloc. The ruling party is still the preferred group for the state's Muslims, with 58 per cent of the community members saying they back the SP.
Around 21 per cent of Muslims indicated that they would vote for the BSP.
A series of anti-Dalits episodes across the country seem to have marred the BJP's attempt to break Mayawati's Dalit vote-bank. An overwhelming 71 per cent of the Dalit respondents indicated that they would be voting for the BSP.
FOUR REGIONAL SUB-PLOTS
The overall electoral picture of Uttar Pradesh is the sum of four separate sub-plots. The BJP is leading in Eastern and Western Uttar Pradesh while the Samajwadi Party has a narrow lead in Central UP or Awadh.
In under-developed Bundelkhand, Mayawati's BSP holds a pole position. In Western UP, the BJP leads with 31 per cent vote share while the BSP and the SP have 27 per cent vote share each.
In Central UP, the SP bags 29 per cent of the vote, while the BSP comes in second with 28 per cent vote and the BJP third at 26 per cent. In Eastern UP, the BJP has a strong lead with a projected vote share of 33 per cent which is five percent more than that of the BSP, which is projected to bag 28 per cent of the votes in this region. The SP is projected to bag 22 per cent of the votes in Eastern UP.