The BJP and its Bihar allies are likely to win elections to the Bihar assembly with a simple majority of 125 seats in the 243-member House said the India Today Cicero pre-poll survey.

The BJP and its Bihar allies are likely to win elections to the Bihar assembly with a simple majority of 125 seats in the 243-member House said the India Today Cicero pre-poll survey. The ruling Janata Dal United is projected to get 106 seats as against the 115 it has in this assembly.

Also Read :  Bihar Election Schedule 

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With the halfway mark at 122, the JDU is expected to lose 35 seats as per projections, the BJP camp is said to gain 31 seats. The JDU is contesting in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress while the BJP camp has the BJP, the Lok Janshakti Party, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and the Hindustani Awami Morcha of former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi. The others are set to increase from 8 to 12.

The projections are based on a methodology based on random stratified sample of 5,968 interviews covering 81 assembly constituencies in Bihar from September 1 to 5. In the 2010 Bihar assembly polls, the then BJP-JDU alliance had won 206 seats, while Lalu Prasad's RJD-led alliance with Paswan won only 25 seats. As things stand now, the JDU has 115 MLAs, BJP 91, the Rashtriya Janata Dal 22, Others 8, Congress 4 and the Lok Janshakti Party 3.

Vote percentage wise, the BJP-led combine is projected to get 42 per cent votes and the Lalu-Nitish-Congress alliance is set to get 40 per cent votes.

Nitish wins cm race
Despite the BJP's better show in the pre-poll survey, Nitish Kumar topped the preferred chief ministerial candidate race. Nitish secured 29 per cent support , while BJP's Sushil Kumar Modi came second at 19 and RJD chief Lalu Prasad third with 12 per cent. Former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi came fifth with 6 per cent of the sample preferring him as the next chief minister of Bihar. Nitish had unseated Manjhi, a Mahadalit, in February this year after appointing him in his stead after the JDU got just 2 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections from the state.

Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan got 7 per cent votes and Lalu's wife former CM Rabri Devi got 2 per cent votes. Elections to the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly will be held in 5 phases from October 12 to November 5. Results are expected on November 8.

BJP-JDU was good for Bihar
Respondents were clear with 40 per cent saying Bihar got good governance when the JDU was in alliance with the BJP while 33 per cent said Nitish ensured better governance after snapping ties with the BJP. Similarly, 47 per cent of those surveyed were against the breakup of the JDU's ties with the BJP.

Sociologist Dipankar Gupta said Nitish is paying the price for snapping ties with the BJP too late, which he did only after the BJP-led NDA decided to support Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate in 2013.

Locality decides the vote bank
According to the survey, 48 per cent of the urban population have come in support for the BJP, while the JD (U) gets the vote bank from 41 per cent rural masses.

Caste and community
70 per cent of the Brahmins of the state have thrown their weight behind the BJP. 70 per cent of Thakur community too preffer BJP. 77 per cent of the Bhumihars too want BJP to come in power in Bihar. 52 per cent of other upper castes communities too support BJP. However, only 15 per cent Muslims support the BJP.

SRC: indiatoday