BJP seems set on a Hindutva campaign to win Assam Polls next year, Muslim vote, assembly poll 2016, Assam Assembly Election 2016,Polarisation , Hindutva campaign

BJP seems set on a Hindutva campaign to win Assam Polls next year, Muslim vote, assembly poll 2016, Assam Assembly Election 2016,Polarisation , Hindutva campaign

On November 21, Assam Governor P.B. Acharya said in a public meeting that "Hindustan belonged to Hindus". The next day, to claim that he was quoted out of context, the former RSS pracharak went a step ahead, saying that Muslims, if they felt insecure in India, could go to Pakistan or Bangladesh.

The same day, BJP MP Yogi Adityanath hailed 17th century Ahom general Lachit Borphukan as a Hindu icon who repulsed Muslim invaders-Borphukan defeated the army of Mughal emperor Aurangzeb in a naval war on the Brahmaputra.

These are not random noises being made. While five states-Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala-go to the polls next year, Assam is the only state where the BJP has a genuine chance of capturing power. Since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, in which it won seven out of 14 seats-its highest ever-the party is on an upswing in the state. Its "Mission 84", of achieving a two-thirds majority in the 126-member Assam Assembly, was based on the fact that the party led in 69 assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections. The party's aspirations further got a fillip in February 2015, when the BJP won 38 of the 74 municipal boards and town committees.

The seriousness of the party regarding Assam is evident as within two weeks of the Bihar assembly poll results being declared, the party brass appointed Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal as president of its Assam unit and chief of its election campaign committee.

The indirect projection of Sonowal, an indigenous Sonowal Kachari, as the chief ministerial candidate indicates that the party doesn't want to repeat its mistake in Bihar and Delhi of not having a local face going into the polls. But the BJP may be missing out on another big lesson from the two states: it seems to be keen on replicating the strategy of communal polarisation in Assam.

The logic is obvious. The 2011 Census data shows Muslim population in the state at 34 per cent, second highest after Jammu and Kashmir. The number-often attributed to an alleged illegal Muslim influx from Bangladesh-has led to fears being expressed of Muslims outnumbering Hindus. "The Bangladeshi influx is a sentimental issue for the people of Assam. The fact that these immigrants are largely Muslims only makes the BJP's polarising agenda easier," says political commentator Dileep Chandan.

Adding to that fear is the rise of All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a party born in 2005 and headed by perfume baron Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, who is often seen as representing the interests of alleged Bangladeshi Muslim settlers in the state. In the 2011 assembly polls, the AIUDF, with 18 seats, emerged as the second-largest party. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls it won three seats, up from one in 2009, clocking the same tally as the Congress. Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, who in 2005 dismissed the AIUDF by asking, "Who is Badruddin?" has now been reaching out to Ajmal to strike a pre-poll alliance to counter the BJP. Gogoi's 15-year-old Congress government, which was riddled with internal dissent and has been fighting a huge anti-incumbency, has performed abysmally in every poll since 2011-Lok Sabha elections in 2014, municipal elections in February and Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Districts elections in April.

But the party which is most desperate to see the Congress and AIUDF come together is the BJP. "No Hindu in Assam will want to see Ajmal having any stake in the government," says a senior Assam BJP leader. In fact, both the BJP and the AIUDF are hoping to benefit from each other's rise. A senior AIUDF leader told India Today that communal statements by BJP leaders would help the party consolidate Muslim votes.

But the road ahead will not be smooth for the Sonowal-led state BJP. For one, the 53-year-old, who started his career as a leader of the All Assam Students' Union, may not find wider acceptance among the non-Assamese population. "Till now his politics has revolved around parochial Assamese sentiments," says Chandan.

In 1999, Sonowal joined the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and won the Lok Sabha election from Dibrugarh in 2004. In 2005, he was hailed as a hero for winning a long legal battle in the Supreme Court and getting the controversial Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act, 1983, often seen as a shield for illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, repealed. Despite state-wide adulation, however, he failed to win in the 2009 General Election. He joined the BJP in 2011 and won in 2014 from Lakhimpur Lok Sabha constituency. Several BJP veterans in the state still see Sonowal as an outsider. "Why did he lose the 2009 polls even after being declared a hero? He has not proved his worth as a leader yet," says a member of the BJP's campaign committee.

Meanwhile, there is growing resentment among Assamese people over the Modi government's land-swap deal with Bangladesh-which the state BJP had opposed-and over assurances that Hindu Bangladeshis would be given citizenship. The volte-face over big dams on Brahmaputra also made a huge dent in the good will for the party across the state. "Earlier they had opposed construction of big dams, but after coming to power, the NDA government cleared several dams in Arunachal Pradesh which will have huge ecological impacts in the region," says Kamal Medhi, general secretary of Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS), which led a long march to Guwahati to protest against the Modi government. Ironically, KMSS had made a public appeal to vote for the BJP in 2014 polls.

A senior BJP leader says the party may resort to some desperate measures to gain lost ground, including an announcement by the central government for the inclusion of six OBC communities of Assam-Moran, Mutock, Tai Ahom, Koch Rajbongshis, Sootea and 36 tea tribes-in the Scheduled Tribes (ST) list. If these communities get ST status, tribals would constitute more than 40 per cent of Assam's population. This would entail reservation of as many as 80 out of 126 assembly seats for STs, rendering parties such as AIUDF virtually irrelevant.

Pending that, the biggest challenge for the BJP comes ironically from the numbers that make it believe the polarisation agenda will help win the state. The state has 53 seats with 25 per cent-plus Muslim population and 39 of them have 35 per cent Muslims. It will be a near-impossible battle for the saffron party in these constituencies if the Congress and AIUDF join hands. "An official alliance may be counterproductive as it may consolidate Hindu votes against us," says a senior Congress leader from Assam, hinting at efforts being made towards an 'unofficial' understanding.

src:indiatoday

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