UK General Election 2015: Mapping constituency opinion polls, Opinion poll, Uk election opinion poll,constituency wise general election opinion polls, Uk election

UK General Election 2015: Mapping constituency opinion polls

The United Kingdom's political landscape has changed significantly since the last general election. UKIP won just 3.1% of the vote in 2010, but now has two seats at Westminster and is polling in the mid teens.

In 2010, not a single Scottish seat changed hands, but a repeat of that is highly unlikely given the increase in support for the Scottish National Party.

But while national polls indicate parties' overall standings, research in individual constituencies reveals some closely fought races, as shown in this map.

Also Read: UK Election Opinion Poll, UK Opinion poll 2015

Like all polls, they are a series of snapshots, rather than a prediction of what will happen on 7 May and are subject to a +/-3% margin of error which may tip the result in some cases.

The map shows the result of four by-elections and 153 constituency polls carried out by Conservative Peer Lord Ashcroft, Survation and ICM since 1 March 2014.

More than half of the constituencies surveyed (96) are marginal seats, so it is perhaps unsurprising to see many showing a different result in polling than at the last election.

The data also suggests change in some previously safe seats, notably in Scotland.

If the results of the 157 polls and by-elections were replicated at the general election, 84 of these seats (54%) would change hands and a further three are too close to call.

In the polling, the Conservatives hold 31 seats and gain 11 from the Liberal Democrats, but lose 39 to Labour. In addition to the two defections to UKIP that triggered by-elections, the latest polling suggests the Tories may also lose two more seats to the party.

One is the Essex seat of Thurrock: one of the most marginal results in 2010 when the Conservatives took the seat from Labour by just 92 votes.

The other is Thanet South, where UKIP leader Nigel Farage is standing. A Survation poll in February 2015 had the party well in the lead on 39%, with Labour in second spot on 28%.

An Ashcroft poll just three months earlier put UKIP on 32%, second to the Conservatives by one percentage point.

Clegg 'behind in Sheffield Hallam'

Labour have a net gain in these polls, coming first in 39 Tory and 9 Lib Dem seats, including Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency.

Three polls in four months find the Lib Dem leader trailing Labour, withWednesday's Ashcroft poll finding a two-point difference. However Mr Clegg responded that he was "confident" he would win but "not complacent".

"If you look at the way people have voted rather than what they've said to Lord Ashcroft since 2010 people in Sheffield has consistently voted Liberal Democrat," he said. However, Labour's gains are offset by a massive swing to the SNP in Scotland.

All but two of the 19 Scottish Labour seats polled by Lord Ashcroft put the nationalists in first place, including Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where former Prime Minister Gordon Brown had a 23,000 majority at the last election.

Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy would hold his Renfrewshire East seat, the poll suggests, but with a much reduced majority.

The SNP also take four seats from the Liberal Democrats in the polling, including the Gordon seat where former SNP leader Alex Salmond has thrown his hat in the ring, and former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy's seat of Ross, Skye and Lochaber.

Meanwhile, the sole Conservative Scottish seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is too close to call between the SNP and the Tories.

Repeating polls

The Liberal Democrats hold on to 19 of their 40 seats polled but lose 11 to the Conservatives, including Business Secretary Vince Cable's Twickenham constituency.

However, repeating a poll can yield a different result as opinions change over time and different respondents simply have different views.

For example, in Cambridge, a Lib Dem seat since 2005, an Ashcroft poll last November put Labour in the lead on 33% and the Lib Dems second on 32% (statistically too close to call).

But a new survey, also by Lord Ashcroft, now has Labour on 31% and the Lib Dems with a clear lead on 40%.

Whether this and the rest of the 157 polls and by-elections will be mirrored when voters cast their ballots in the general election will not be known until 8 May.

Methodology

This data is taken from all published polling data in individual constituencies since 1 March 2014. Where a constituency was surveyed more than once, the most recent poll is shown.

Most of the polling was commissioned from independent polling companies by former Conservative party deputy chairman and donor Lord Ashcroft. Eight were conducted by Survation on behalf of UKIP donor Alan Bown or trade union Unite and one was carried out by ICM for former Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott.

Ashcroft and Survation polls canvas 1,000 people by telephone and have a margin of error of +/-3% at 95% confidence level. The ICM poll sample size was 501 and margin of error is +/-4.5%.

src:www.bbc.com/ (first published by BBC news)

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