UK Election 2015: how Labour gains from UK electoral system in a tight race, UK Election 2015 opinion poll, UK opinion poll, opinion poll 2015
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- Last Updated: Friday, 17 April 2015 18:34
UK Election 2015: how Labour gains from UK electoral system in a tight race
ith two months to go, the race could not be tighter. Labour has clung to a small but consistent poll lead for months, but in the past couple of weeks even that weak reed has snapped. Taken together, the most recent polling suggests either a dead heat or a tiny Conservative advantage in vote share.
Yet, despite this, the likeliest outcome remains a much messier hung parliament than in 2010, and an easier path out of the morass for Labour than theConservatives. The reason for this lies in the way the electoral system converts our fragmented political preferences into seats in the House of Commons
Labour can reach a Commons majority with a smaller lead in the vote than the Conservatives can, all else being equal. The past two elections illustrate this: in 2005, Tony Blair turned less than three percentage points into a Commons majority of more than 50, while five years later David Cameron fell nearly 20 seats short of a majority despite a seven-point vote lead.
This advantage to Labour has several sources – Labour constituencies tend to have fewer people, turnout is lower in Labour-held seats, and Labour has traditionally lost fewer seats to third parties. The Labour vote is also more “efficient”.
The ideal in our system is “win small, lose big” – the fewer votes spent on crushing victories or narrow defeats, the better the return of seats to votes. Labour’s vote is closer to this ideal – fewer mega-majorities, and a better record of wins in tight races.
Putting all these factors, and some smaller ones, together John Curtice estimated in 2011 that the Conservatives would need a lead of more than 11 points on current boundaries to win a majority, while Labour could secure one with a lead of just three points.
Some of the big shifts since then – in particular the SNP surge in traditionally low-turnout, safe Labour seats, and the rise in Ukip support, which will reduce Conservative safe-seat majorities – may have reduced this bias, but are unlikely to have eliminated it.
The Conservatives therefore still need a much larger polling lead than they are posting currently to have any chance of a majority, while Labour’s losses in Scotland make their path to a majority coalition much harder too, even if their polling recovers.
All signs therefore continue to point to a more fragmented Parliament than we have now, with both Labour and the Conservatives well short of a majority, a much reduced Liberal Democrat contingent, a large SNP presence and a handful of Ukippers.
The path to a majority will be tortuous in such a Commons, but Labour, again, will most likely benefit from the electoral system’s effects. On current evidence, the SNP could return 30-50 MPs on 3-4% of the UK vote, and these MPs will be much more inclined to work with Labour than the Conservatives (something recent Conservative attack ads will only have encouraged).
Ukip’s new MPs might, conversely, be more willing to prop up a Conservative administration, yet they look set to win between four and six MPs on 12% or more of the UK vote.The Conservatives, then, face a double disadvantage from the electoral system, which favours Labour over them, and heavily favours the left-inclined SNP over the right-inclined Ukip.
A sharp reduction in Liberal Democrat MPs will further reduce the range of options available to the Conservatives. The Tories are gaining as the finish line moves into view, but thanks to an electoral system that robs them of seats and potential allies, they still have a long way to go.
src:theguardian