Disappointing State Election result. Essential for all to take time for calm reflection and learn the lessons #qldpol #auspol
Politics Live: fallout from Queensland election threatens Tony Abbott,Australia election,Queensland election, Who should be Prime Minister of Australia?
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- Last Updated: Saturday, 07 February 2015 13:47
Politics Live: fallout from Queensland election threatens Tony Abbott
Ciao for now
With that Fairfax-Ipsos Poll news, we leave our live coverage for this afternoon.
But before that, what have we learned?
· There are lots of lessons to learn when an election goes really badly for you;
· But that doesn't mean Queensland was Tony Abbott's fault at all;
· Oh no;
· And he's not going anywhere, according to Kevin Andrews.
· Besides, George Brandis has branded it "crazy" for the Liberal Party to swap leaders.
So the show rolls on.
Remember, it is Press Club Day tomorrow ...
Thanks for tuning in.
New Fairfax-Ipsos Poll has Labor way ahead
We woke to a Galaxy Poll that had Labor way in front.
Now, a Fairfax-Ipsos Poll lands with a thud.
As chief political correspondent Mark Kenny reports, Labor enjoys an eight point buffer.
They are out in front, 54 per cent to the Coalition's 46 per cent.
Labor's primary vote is 40 per cent.
The Coalition's is 38 per cent. It was 45 per cent at the 2013 federal election.
Time for calm reflection
Is this the man who will blow the Liberal leadership wide open?
Or not?
Turnbull seizes victory (in our online poll)
Many thanks to the 5500 of you who voted in our poll today.
We asked who should be Prime Minister and you answered:
Malcolm Turnbull with 58 per cent
Kevin Rudd with 26 per cent
Julie Bishop with 10 per cent
Tony Abbott with 4 per cent
Joe Hockey with 1 per cent; and
Scott Morrison also with 1 per cent.
So there you have it.
The Defence Minister comes to Abbott defence
They don't call Kevin Andrews the Minister for Tanks, Guns and War for nothing.
He is on a ship as part of the annual UK-Australia defence and foreign affairs talks, which also involve Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister.
He says the Coalition will "learn from" the Queensland election -
But the lesson will not be to change leaders.
As Andrews says:
"I have full confidence in the Prime Minister. I believe the Prime Minister will lead us to the next election."
AND
"I am reasonably confident we will still win the next election."
(And yes, we do note he said "reasonably confident".)
Don't forget to vote
In our poll below.
It closes at 3pm Canberra time.
Who should be Prime Minister?
Who should lead the nation?
Don't be shy ... as Christopher Pyne has taught us, politics is no place for shyness.
The Anyone but Abbott gang
As the phones ring hot and the behind the scenes talk continues, there are some interesting groupings emerging within Liberal ranks.
As Latika Bourke has discovered, one of those, is the "Anyone but Abbott" gang.
Some MPs are saying they do not mind whether Malcolm Turnbull or Julie Bishop takes over.
Which is interesting on a couple of levels, no?
At one level, it shows how eager some are to change leaders.
But on the other, wouldn't you have a preference?
As one Liberal said, "we really should be a little more rigorous than that".
It's hardly like choosing between the chicken or the fish ... We are talking about the Prime Ministership here ...
Queensland MPs (still) cranky
James and Latika also report that there continues to be many Queensland MPs with a grievance.
This includes Senator Ian Macdonald, who said that the Liberal leadership needs "mature, careless and selfless" consideration.
Macdonald does not think a direct challenge to Abbott is the way to go.
So read between the lines on that one.
Boy wonder Wyatt Roy has opined, "we need to be very good at explaining complicated ideas ... taking the public into our confidence".
Lets get together
Cabinet will meet on both Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
The get together was scheduled some time ago, but it has added significance in light of, well ... you know.
As James Massola and Latika Bourke report, one (anonymous) cabinet minister has told Fairfax Media that Tony Abbott's fortunes had changed "dramatically" in recent weeks.
They said no one was "stalking" the PM (a la Rudd with Gillard).
"The question is, does he have the confidence of the partyroom?"
Happy Birthday, Mrs Abbott
Here's hoping there is cake at least.
Turnbull gives Abbott the thumbs up
But while arriving at the G'day USA gala in Los Angeles, Turnbull has thrown his support behindTony Abbott.
1:36pm:
Turnbull gives Abbott the thumbs up
But while arriving at the G'day USA gala in Los Angeles, Turnbull has thrown his support behind Tony Abbott.
(Nothing to see here.)
Turnbull on leadership
Meanwhile, the Communications Minister is in the US.
Malcolm Turnbull has given a speech entitled, "Assessing the Future of the Asia-Pacific - US/Australia Dialogue".
Within this, he had some interesting things to say about leadership:
Leaders must be decision makers, but they must also be, above all, explainers and advocates, unravelling complex issues in clear language that explains why things have to change and why the government cannot solve every problem ...
It is vitally important, both as a matter of social justice and political reality, that structural changes are seen as being fair across the board. That means not only must tough decisions be justified, but that the burden of adjustment is not borne disproportionately by one part of the community.
Poll: Who should be Prime Minister of Australia?
Ok, enough dancing around here.
Who do you think should be Prime Minister of the country?
Vote now in our poll! The results will be forwarded to the winning candidate with a bunch of flowers.
Poll: Who should be Prime Minister of Australia?
Total votes: 5501.
Poll closed 1 Feb, 2015
Q. Why did the Prime Minister cross the road?
A. This has nothing to do with leadership speculation, so I'm not interested.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott (not a chicken) in Sydney on Sunday. Photo: Anthony Johnson
Here is the PM earlier this morning.
Meeting with the Coptic Christian community and getting on with governing as usual.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott addresses the media, after attending St Marks Coptic Orthodox Church. Photo: Anthony Johnson
The support crew
Who stood by the PM today and did the nodding duty as he addressed reporters, following his meeting with the Coptic Christian community?
The parliamentary grandpappy Philip Ruddock was there (just as he was during the election campaign).
Also on hand was senior NSW senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (who has charge of the government's multicultural agenda), and NSW MPs David Coleman, Nickolas Varvaris andCraig Kelly.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott addresses the media in Sydney on Sunday. Photo: Anthony Johnson Photo: Anthony Johnson
Abbott's Miley Cyrus moment
The Age's political editor Michael Gordon writes that Tony Abbott has a new title.
"It sure 'aint a knighthood.
"He is now the Liberal Party's wrecking ball, leaving a trail of destruction across the nation."
Michael also writes that the first question raise by the Queensland result is "how potent" theAbbott factor will be in the NSW state election in March.
"Assuming there is no move against him before then."
Not to take away from the very serious points being made here, but we now have this song stuck firmly in our heads.
As well as some bizarre imagery we'd really rather not discuss.
Don't be alerted or alarmed
A few eyebrows are raised in newsrooms today.
There was no alert from the Prime Minister's Office about Tony Abbott's media appearance that was shown on television this morning.
It really is a miracle that any journalists were able to get there at all to ask him some questions.
What do Abbott's "friends" have to say?
I bet you're wondering what the conservative commentators have to say today.
They have not been particularly chirpy lately, when it comes to one T. Abbott.
Alan Jones, Janet Albrechtsen, Niki Savva, Miranda Devine and Andrew Bolt have all been sticking the boot right in.
Bolt follows up this morning by calling the Queensland election result a "disaster" for the PM.
"I don't know if Abbott can recover," he says.
Devine also has new views.
Earlier this week, she called for Abbott to change his chief-of-staff.
Today, she argues that the Coalition should not be desperate to hang on to Peta Credlin.
For one thing: "staffers have been instructed by Abbott to buy her flowers if they fall out with her".
(I wonder if there's any particular kind here. Can you say it with a simple bunch of daisies? Or will only peonies and long stemmed roses do?)
Abbott has to zip
It is not a very long doorstop.
Abbott spends about seven minutes addressing reporters and taking questions.
(And does not confirm reports that his "signature" paid parental leave scheme has been dumped.)
Would you want to hang around in this situation?
Besides, the man has a speech to write.
Abbott: Things are going to change (watch this space)
The PM is pressed several times about what he will actually fix things.
He says that the government has "listened" and "learnt" from the "difficulties in the Senate".
"We will be a more consultative and collegial government in 2015 ...
"We will not take the Senate for granted."
Abbott: Government isn't a popularity contest
What lessons will you learn from the state election?
"I don't say for a second that we haven't made mistakes.
"I don't say for a second that we can't do things better, but I am not going to be distracted from the essential task of giving this country the good government it deserves."
How will you recover in the polls?
"I accept that we need to learn from the difficulties that we've had, but in the end, government is not a popularity contest.
"It is a competence contest. "
Prime Minister Tony Abbott in Sydney on Sunday. Photo: Anthony Johnson
Abbott: Don't blame me for Queensland, OK?
Despite the PM saying that there are "lessons" and all that for him to learn following the state election, he is not accepting that the result is his fault.
"The voters of Australia are pretty smart.
"They judge state elections on state issues and they judge federal elections on federal issues."
"Campbell was a good premier ..."
Prime Minister Tony Abbott is in Sydney's south, after meeting with Coptic Christians this morning.
He begins by talking about how fantastic it was that the Socceroos won last night.
(See Australia, I like sport, just like you.)
And then moves on to the Queensland result.
He says he has spoken to Campbell Newman.
"He has been a good Premier, who led a good government."
The lesson is "not to give up on reform, but to make sure that everything you propose is fully explained and well justified.
"Obviously that's a lesson that we are determined to learn in Canberra as well."
Hmmm.
There are some people on Twitter who think Abbott should use the podium tomorrow to step down.
That would certainly one up Gillard's surprise move two years ago, when she set the election date all those months in advance (and rocked a new pair of spectacles).
What would you say at the press club, if you were Abbott?
It is an unenviable task, this press club affair.
Abbott will have about 30 minutes to speak, before 30 minutes of questions.
It's a lot of clear air, when you compare it to a sound bite on the nightly news.
But not if this is your chance to turn around months of negative publicity, thoughts and results. And your own side is gunning for you as much as the opposition is.
Mikey Nicholson on Twitter has this suggestion about the PM should say (if you have your own thoughts, please let me know @CanberraCamper):
There has been all sort of chitter chat about what might be in Abbott's speech tomorrow.
Will he use it to dump his paid parental leave scheme?
Will he give more detail about the fabled families package that the Coalition has been working on over the summer holidays?
News Corp papers today suggest that that the 1.5 per cent levy on big businesses - which was supposed to be used to fund the PPL - will be now used to pay for childcare reforms.
You'd have to think that there will be a few last-minute scribbles happening today though, post-Queensland.
This all comes of course ahead of Abbott's big speech tomorrow.
At lunchtime on Monday, he will address the National Press Club.
It's a make or break one for him.
Jacqueline Maley and James Massola have written that this is his chance to outline his plans for the year.
Reset the narrative and all that.
"Now is the moment for a fresh agenda ..."
This all comes of course ahead of Abbott's big speech tomorrow.
At lunchtime on Monday, he will address the National Press Club.
It's a make or break one for him.
Jacqueline Maley and James Massola have written that this is his chance to outline his plans for the year.
Reset the narrative and all that.
"Now is the moment for a fresh agenda ..."
Abbott in Sydney
We are expecting to hear from Abbott in person later this morning from Sydney.
He has been meeting Coptic Christians at Arncliffe (a suburb right next to Sydney airport).
His office says it was a long-planned event.
In case you were wondering what Uncle Rupert thinks about the Queensland election.
Here it is:
That statement from the PM kills off any argument that the Coalition might make about the Queensland election having nothing to do with it.
(But was there really an argument there anyway?)
PM responds to Queensland election
This just in from Tony Abbott (by way of a statement):
I have spoken to Campbell Newman to thank him for his service to Queensland.
Obviously, it has been a very difficult outcome for him and his government.
Campbell Newman can be proud of what his government did to restore Queensland's finances and to boost its economy.
There are lessons in this result for all governments, including the federal one.
The LNP will be looking at them closely.
The Federal Government remains fully committed to creating jobs and helping families get ahead.
Would Abbott really step down of his own accord?
This was a scenario that was often discussed in relation to Julia Gillard, when things got unpopular for her.
It seems like an appealing option. It means that others don't get "blood on their hands". And seems tidier than a challenge/ spill,
But at the Insiders panel discusses, how likely is it really?
The Courier Mail's Dennis Atkins says he has never met a PM who was willing to or had even thought about giving up the job.
"Once they get in, they love it."
The Sydney Morning Herald's Mark Kenny agrees.
"I think if you've got it in your DNA to be leader, to get to that place - then you probably just don't have the capacity to give it up."
It is worth remembering that Prime Ministers are not at all like you or me*. They are built of impossibly tough stuff.
*Not sure about you, but if I'd had a week at work like Abbott's last week, I would have skipped the country and gone into permanent hiding.
Shorten: If Abbott quits, he'd be a quitter
It is put to Shorten that if the Liberal Party swaps to Malcolm Turnbull, then there could be an early election.
There is a bit of a theory doing the rounds that Abbott might step down of his own accord, rather than by a party room challenge (given there is an absence of a challenge at this stage).
The Labor Leader has this to say on that front.
"If Tony Abbott walks the plank, that's a cop out."
(Telling us something perhaps about who he would prefer to face at an election.)
It is truly breathtaking how much things change and then don't change in politics.
Shorten tells Barrie Cassidy with a straight face that the Liberal Party would be idiots to think that "changing leader is all they need to do" to fix their woes.
"It is what Liberals are trying to sell Australia [that] is the problem."
Yes, this from the man who was key to the Labor Party changing leaders TWICE when they were in government.
Bill Shorten is on Insiders. Looking delighted.
The Sunday shows continue.
Labor Leader Bill Shorten is on the ABC's Insiders program.
He appears to be struggling to keep his grin in check as he congratulates Annastacia Palaszczuck and talks about dud Liberal doings at both the state and federal levels.
He says he would be "staggered" if the Liberals changed leaders.
(Because they jumped up and down so much when Labor changed leaders. And then changed them again.)
Have they learned from your mistakes?
"Possibly."
Brandis: Tony can change
The Attorney-General (still on Sky) says that Tony Abbott will be "even more consultative and inclusive" in his style in 2015.
And he will take the public on more a "journey" when it comes to selling policies and communicating.
Get ready for Tony 2.0.
Victorian frontbencher Darren Chester agrees with Brandis' no change argument.
He has just offered this up to the social media gods.
"We would be crazy"
Brandis is really earning his money this morning.
He insists that the cabinet is determinedly, unitedly and strongly behind the Prime Minister.
"The cabinet needs to show leadership."
He argues that the situation with the Coalition today is very different from Labor's leadership woes, where "half the cabinet was a war with the other half of the cabinet".
Brandis also has this to say about changing leaders right now:
"We would be crazy."
"Lets be frank"
Brandis, however, isn't suggesting that everything is roses. Or even carnations.
In the wake of the #knightmare, he says:
"Let's be frank, the government had a shocker of a week. The Prime Minister had a shocker of a week."
BUT
He does not accept that the PM's leadership is "in play".
Either way ... when was the last time you heard a senior minister say that the PM had had a shocker???
Meanwhile, George Brandis ...
The Attorney-General is on Sky.
He has come out fierce and fightin' in support for Tony Abbott.
He says the media is getting "way ahead" of itself for reckoning that the PM's leadership in hanging in the balance.
People (MPs) are expressing their frustration "and that's it".
The Queensland Senator says the Coalition should not be "frightened" by the state election result.
Which, by the way, he says had nothing to do with federal issues.
This was not "send a message to Canberra type" of election, Brandis argues.
Another outspoken Queenslander, Warren Entsch has been doing some outspeaking.
On ABC 24 this morning, he suggested that the knighting of Sir Prince Philip "may well have influenced some people's vote" in the state election shocker.
He also suggested that his support for the PM was a to be confirmed thing.
"I'm going to have to look closely at the outcome of this," he said. "I'm bitterly disappointed."
Asked if Malcolm Turnbull should be PM instead, he replied:
"I'm not going to speculate.
"There are more discussions that need to be had."
(There's that word again: discussions.)
A conga line of Coalition reactions
There is no shortage of MPs lining up to offer their thoughts on Queensland and the Prime Minister.
Last night influential Queensland backbencher Jane Prentice said that Abbott's leadership was up for discussion.
She was on an ABC TV panel about the election at the time.
Asked whether Abbott was the right person to lead the Coalition to the next election, Prenticesaid:
"Well, that's a discussion, isn't it? We need to look at where we're going."
Yikes.
So what does this mean for Abbott?
Unfortunately what happens in Queensland does not stay in Queensland.
The recriminations are already well underway.
If Tony Abbott was already in big troubs before the weekend, things are much hairier now.
(Not helped by a fresh Galaxy Poll this morning that puts federal Labor way way way out in front 57 to 43 per cent, two-party-preferred.)
In case you missed it ...
Campbell Newman has lost his seat.
And his job as premier of Queensland.
Last night he told his supporters that his political career was O-V-E-R.
As Queensland state political reporter Amy Remeikis reports, Labor and its leaderAnnastacia Palaszczuk are set to take power.
Good morning from Canberra.
As really serious questions are asked about Tony Abbott's future, we are coming to you live.
It is a grey old day here. The meteorological equivalent of the mood in the Coalition.
A doozy of a political hangover
A premier is gone. A state government is lost. And the fallout begins.
Meanwhile, more poll results predict doom, gloom and all those bad things for Prime Minister Tony Abbot
src:smh.com.au