UK general elections: Indian diaspora to be the deciding factor, UK general elections: Indian diaspora to be the deciding factor
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- Last Updated: Saturday, 07 February 2015 14:33
UK general elections: Indian diaspora to be the deciding factor
London: Votes from the Indian diaspora will be the deciding factor in the upcoming general election in UK in May.
Almost 4 million voters — about one in 10 of the entire electorate in England and Wales — have been found to be born abroad. Indians have emerged the largest chunk in this foreign born electorate. As many as 615,000 Indians will vote in the upcoming election. The second largest chunk of foreign voters will be Pakistanis — 431,000.
Records show the Commonwealth migrant communities (in particular from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and South Africa), along with the Irish Republic, will have the highest numbers of potential voters in May 2015. European Union nationals, despite their large and growing presence in the UK, will be heavily under-represented in May 2015, as a large majority have not yet acquired British citizenship.
The migrant electorate is heavily concentrated in London — 19 of the 20 seats with the largest migrant voter shares are in Greater London.
Migrants would constitute over a third of the electorate in around 25 seats across England and Wales in 2015 and at least a quarter of the electorate in over 50 seats.
The migrant electorate could have decisive power in at least 70 seats the migrant share of the electorate in 2015.
It is estimated that populations of 100,000 migrants or more originating from 23 different countries now live in Britain.
The migrant vote is largest by far in London — 19 of the top 20 seats with largest migrant voter shares, and over 40 of the top fifty seats, are in the capital.
According to Office for National Statistics estimates based on the 2011 Census, around 46% of foreign-born British residents hold a British passport, and hence have such voting rights.
Analysis of data from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses suggests that up to 2.8 million British citizens born abroad will be eligible to vote in the next general election.
An analysis of 2001 and 2011 Census data suggests that around 920,000 Commonwealth citizens, and 270,000 citizens of the Irish Republic, could be eligible to cast a vote in the next general election.
The total population born in the four nations of the Indian sub-continent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) has risen by over 800,000 to a projected 1.7 million people.
UK residents born in Commonwealth countries comprise the largest numbers of potential migrant voters in England and Wales. Five of the top six countries from which migrant voters in UK general elections originate are all Commonwealth members:
- India (615,000 potential voters), Pakistan (431,000), Bangladesh (183,000), Nigeria (182,000), and South Africa (168,000), while the sixth is the Irish Republic (297,000), whose citizens enjoy similar rights to those of Commonwealth members.