Galaxy poll shows Labor in with a good chance of winning Queensland election

Galaxy poll shows Labor in with a good chance of winning Queensland election

A Galaxy Poll conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail has revealed double-digit swings against the Newman Government in the electorates of Pumicestone and Greenslopes.

Dozens of LNP seats in Brisbane and the surrounding region would be in peril if the seismic shift against the Government is replicated elsewhere.

The result will raise further questions over whether Premier Campbell Newman can secure Ashgrove and the potential for the LNP to win narrowly without him.

The Galaxy Poll also revealed the LNP could be wiped out across north Queensland, a key battleground during the election, with Labor profiting off the demise of Katter’s Australian Party.

Party insiders insisted internal polling showed there were wild variations in swings occurring across the state, even between neighbouring electorates, and the results may shift dramatically.

The LNP believe the names of their well-known MPs on the ballot paper would shield many of them from the fallout but warned a minority government scenario was still a highly possible scenario.

According to Galaxy, the future of the LNP’s rising regional star, David Crisafulli, is on a knife’s edge.

The Local Government Minister has retained the 43 per cent primary support he achieved in 2012 to wrestle his electorate of Mundingburra off Labor but his opponent has received an 18.3 per cent surge in support.

KAP snared 23 per cent of the vote in 2012 but is not contesting the electorate.

On a two-party preferred basis, Mr Crisafulli trails 51 per cent to 49 per cent, a swing of more than 11 per cent.

A similar swing towards Labor is occurring in the neighbouring electorate of Thuringowa which KAP is also not contesting after achieving 30 per cent of the vote in 2012.

Labor leads the LNP 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

In Townsville, the swing to Labor is even more dramatic with the party leading 58 per cent to 42 per cent on a two-party preferred basis after 16.7 per cent primary swing.

Further north, former journalist Gavin King is struggling to hold Cairns after the LNP won the seat for the first time in 100 years in 2012.

Labor’s vote has jumped 16.5 per cent without a KAP candidate and the party leads the LNP 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

Opposition treasury spokesman Curtis Pitt will easily retain Mulgrave with 52 per cent of the primary after he scrapped home in 2012 in an even three-way contest against the LNP and KAP.

Barron River is locked at 50 per cent each for the major parties after a 14 per cent jump in Labor’s support.

While Newman Government’s northern troubles have come because of KAP, around Brisbane the LNP’s primary vote has plummeted after a bruising first term in office.

In Pumicestone, Lisa France, who is considered a future Cabinet contender, is hanging on to a slim lead.

With a margin of 12 per cent, Labor would need to win Pumicestone and every seat below it to gain government in its own right.

Ms France’s primary support has slipped more than seven per cent while Labor’s has improved almost 10 per cent giving the LNP a slender lead of 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

The result will raise hopes within Labor that it can win a host of other seats in the outer Brisbane area like the safe LNP electorates of Kallangur and Murrumba as well as the more marginal, like Capalaba, Logan, Ipswich and Waterford.

In Greenslopes, former police officer Ian Kaye appears to be a certain victim of the swing against the Newman Government.

The LNP’s primary vote has shrunk by almost 12 per cent despite hopes within the party that the swing towards Labor would be less in such inner-city seats.

Labor leads the LNP on two-party preferred 59 per cent to 41, converting the electorate to a relatively safe seat for Ms Palaszczuk.

Other electorates in the Brisbane area which would fall to Labor under similar swings include Ferny Grove, Algester, Mount Coot-tha, Brisbane Central, Nudgee, Sandgate, Lytton and Bulimba.

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