Assembly Election Opinion/Exit Poll, Survey Result, Who will win in Assembly Elections
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- Category: Opinion Poll
- Last Updated: Thursday, 22 January 2015 20:48
Summary for 181 seats cross South India in Phase 3
The gains made by ‘Others’ in all the 3 parts are highly skewed because many Big allies like TMC, DMK, JDU etc have dumped UPA/NDA and moved to others. A fair comparison is made while presenting for the Overall seats
Game of Thrones
- BJP would emerge as the single largest party whether it projects Modi as PM or not. However in both cases it would be well short of majority.
- BJP gets 140 seats without Modi as PM (repeat of 2004 performance) and if Modi is made PM, he powers BJP to its best ever tally of 184 (2 seats more than 1999)
- Congress would bleed profusely and would fare one of the worst performances ever and surprisingly Modi as PM would slightly help Congress/UPA to get additional 5-10 seats
- The ‘Others’ block would suffer the most if Modi is made PM candidate of NDA, since he helps NDA get an additional 47 seats.
- Other major players crucial in Govt. formation would be: Left Front (20-30 seats), SP (34-40 seats), AIADMK (25-30 seats), TMC (22-26 seats), JDU (11-17 seats), TDP (13-15) seats etc.
- If Modi is the PM candidate, NDA would get 211 seats. Other NDA leaning parties could help them garner the magic number of 272 which would include:
AIADMK – 26, TMC – 22, TDP – 13, BJD – 15, MNS – 4, JVM – 1, SDF – 1, AGP – 1, INLD – 1, Independent & Others - 5. Total – 300
- If Modi is not the PM candidate UPA would get 118 seats while NDA 164. However UPA would find it easier to form the government owing to more parties inclination towards UPA as given below
- UPA – 118, SP – 40, BSP – 18, JDU – 17, Left Front – 32, YSR Congress – 11, MIM – 1, SDF – 1, JDS – 7, DMK – 4, PMK – 1, DMDK – 2, AUDF – 2, RJD – 8, TRS – 9, Independent & Others – 4. Total – 275
In the democracy of India, a party needs to have atleast simple majority (i.e. atleast 272 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats). However since 1984, no single party has reached this figure on its own. This has given rise to the Alliance politics. 1st it was the Post Poll Alliance followed by the Pre Poll Alliance in the 1998 elections. But inorder to win 50% of the seats does a party need to win 50% of the votes? The answer is no. In a constituency if there are 10 candidates, one candidate can win the seat by just getting the maximum votes which could be as low as 11%.
In 1996, BJP got 20.29% votes and emerged as the single largest party with 161 seats
The above chart is quite a revelation. Vote % of Congress is nearly the same in 1999 and 2009 elections and yet the difference between the numbers of seats is almost 100. It is also clear that Congress has to get more vote % to win as many seats as BJP because Congress is a bigger force in some of the states like Kerala, Kashmir, Haryana, North East, Tamil Nadu etc where BJP is nonexistent. In these states, Congress may win get a large chunk of votes, but might not get any seats because of stronger regional power. Hence Congress would have to get atleast 3-4% extra votes to win same number of seats as BJP. As per our survey in 2014, the vote share would be
Without Modi as PM
Congress – 21.72% with 105 seats, BJP – 23.68% with 140 seats.
With Modi as the PM candidate of NDA
Congress – 23.39% with 113 seats, BJP – 26.82% with 184 seats.
With Modi coming into picture the % of voters coming out to vote would increase from 63.6% to 65.1%. This is a very high polling percentage considering that both in 2004 and 2009 the Polling attendance by the voters lied between 55-60%. So by projecting Modi as the PM, an additional 1.5% of the Voters would come out to vote. BJP would be helped by a powerful Prime Ministerial candidate.
source:http://www.ibtl.in/