Poll Season: Why Congress can't afford to lose Delhi, Delhi poll 2013, Delhi , Congress, Sheila Dikshit, Poll updates, delhi news,BJP, latest news,Political news.

Poll Season: Why Congress can't afford to lose Delhi.

NEW DELHI: Delhi is a small urbanised state - just 70 assembly seats - in a big country where village votes dominate national election fortunes. Its Congress chief minister is widely acknowledged as a performer. Its BJP unit is equally widely acknowledged as not being in the best of political health.

So, Congress should have relatively less worries about Delhi as Election Season 2013-14 opens with five states going to polls in November-December.

Instead, the small and seemingly relatively safe state of Delhi is a big worry for the party.

"We simply can't afford to lose Delhi...it will be a huge setback for Lok Sabha elections because it will be evidence of national mood swinging against us...a perception will be created against us," says a very senior Congress leader who's a key strategist for the party and spoke on condition of anonymity.

"The UPA has done many good things," Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit told ET recently over the course of a lengthy interaction, "but there has not been enough communication. We must get the message across more aggressively."

These and many similar reflections and analyses on the part of heavyweight Congress leaders are on the same lines: the December 4 assembly elections in the city-state of Delhi are a must-win for the party. And privately, many Congress leaders are far less certain than they would like to be about a positive outcome.

Congress leaders cite two reasons why the party must retain Delhi. First, it will indicate that a relatively well-performing and well-liked CM may have fallen victim to voter disaffection against Congress at the Centre. A Delhi defeat, one Congress leader said, can be spun by the party's opponents as a first sign of a national mood swing.

Second, given Narendra Modi's aggressive nationwide campaign - one rally has happened in Delhi already - and given, as Congress leaders say, his attempt to target the urban vote, a Congress defeat in Delhi will be interpreted as an early demonstration of the BJP leader's tactic working.

Dikshit told ET that voters in Delhi "can't always distinguish between state and central performance". "You can't wish away that situation," she said, but insisted that the central Congress-led government was not a liability.

However, a senior official in the Delhi administration who has closely worked on many city projects said, "The CM is battling perceptions against a government she doesn't run...that's her problem."

Adding to this possible perception problem is the close nature of Delhi election results. Congress strategists privately point out that in the electoral cycle in Delhi - state elections, national elections and municipal elections - Congress' vote share has ranged from 37% in municipal polls to 40% in the last assembly polls and 57% in the last Lok Sabha polls.

"This is a wide range and it contrasts with BJP's vote share in these elections, which has remained stable at around 36%," says a Congress leader. This, he says, indicates Congress can either win or lose significant vote share depending on how voters perceive other contestants.

"True, local, state and national elections are different, but the fact that BJP has maintained a steady share through them is not good news for Congress if there's a negative perception against the ruling party," said another Congress leader who's working closely on the Delhi strategy.

source:econominctimes

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