The neighbouring states of Maharashtra and Gujarat have had a very contrasting political atmosphere. Maharashtra has become a two horse race since the 1990s with the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party on one side and the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine on the other side, but in Gujarat it has been a saffron wave that has swept away all the opposition for nearly two decades.

According to the CSDS-CNN-IBN Election Tracker survey, the situation has not changed much in the two states since the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009.

While the Congress-NCP alliance got 39 per cent of the votes in the 2009 polls, the combine will get the support of 43 per cent voters if elections are held in July 2013. But the alliance has not seen a big jump in the number of seats and will send 23-27 MPs from the state. In the 2009 polls, the alliance won 25 seats. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will get 18-22 seats while the MNS and others are likely to win 0-2 and 0-4 seats respectively.

Almost 35 per cent of the respondents in Maharashtra say that the Congress-NCP should continue alliance in the next Lok Sabha polls but 20 per cent of the respondents want both parties to contest Lok Sabha polls separately.

The satisfaction level with the Congress-NCP government has gone up to 64 per cent in 2013 from 55 per cent in 2011 and the dissatisfaction level, too, is down to 29 per cent in 2013 from 32 per cent in 2011, which should come as a relief to the ruling coalition.

According to 55 per cent voters the Shiv Sena, which is an ally of the BJP, should fight the next Lok Sabha election in partnership with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) while an overwhelming 70 per cent Sena supporters say that the two parties should come together.

Though MNS chief Raj Thackeray may garner negative headlines for his hard-line politics, 48 per cent of the respondents feel that he is the most suitable leader to take forward late Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray's legacy.

Uddhav Thackeray, who is currently heading the Shiv Sena, is only preferred by 18 per cent people with even 57 per cent of the Shiv Sena supporters backing Raj Thackeray.

In Gujarat it is Narendra Modi all the way. The Modi-led BJP has consolidated itself further in the state and will see a nine per cent increase in its vote share which will go up to 56 from 47 in 2009. The Congress will see a corresponding fall in its vote share and will get only 34 per cent votes. Modi popularity will help the BJP win 20-24 seats in 2013 as compared to 15 seats in 2009 while Congress may suffer badly by winning only 2-6 seats against 11 in 2009.

A vast majority of 64 per cent respondents feel that they are happy under the Modi government while 23 per cent are dissatisfied. Though Narendra Modi may be the most popular leader of his party, survey says that Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has done a better job with 82 per cent voters satisfied with his rule. Even the Chhattisgarh government of Raman Singh gets the backing of 75 per cent voters on the satisfaction index.

While BJP, which has recently anointed Narendra Modi as its campaign committee chief, is yet to project him as the prime ministerial candidate, in Gujarat 49 per cent voters want him to be made the nominee. But the number drops to 41 per cent when all India figures are taken into account.

source:http://ibnlive.in.com/news