A CNN-IBN –

Hindu poll which looked at the election scenarios for three of the four southern states has indicated that although Congress will win Karnataka, it will have its work cut out in the South. This will mostly be because Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress won an astounding 33 seats, looks likely to be a washout for the party.

Here is what an expert panel comprising Sandeep Shastri, the Vice Chancellor of Jain university in Bangalore, Journalist Swapan Dasgupta, Professor Ramachandra Guha, author of India after Gandhi, P Sainath, the rural affairs editor for the Hindu, and N Ram, the former Editor in Chief of the paper made of the survey results:

Andhra Pradesh:

Andhra Pradesh sends the third largest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha and the Congress won an astounding 33 seats in the 2009 election.But the consensus was Congress is set for a debacle in the state, mostly because of poor governance.

“It is a non-governed state from being a moderately well-governed state,” one of the panelists said.

The issue of whether to spin off Telangana as a separate state was split among the respondents of the poll, with 36 percent saying the state should remain whole while 34 percent thought it should be split into two. The crucial number though, was that 88 percent who favoured Telangana said that was the crucial factor in deciding how to vote. That suggests that carving out Telangana (which would have 17 LS seats) could benefit the Congress, but the panelists said the math was not so simple.

“Nothing wrong with smaller states including a Telangana,’ Sainath said. “But Congress attempts to mix that with election fortunes is a dangerous game that can have very different results”

Jaganmohan Reddy, the son of late Andhra Pradesh chief Minister, YSR Reddy, was seen as the wild card in this election. Reddy was jailed for a year in a disproportionate assets case and though 34 percent see him as corrupt, 25 percent of those polled felt he was the best choice to be Chief Minister of the state.

“I was given this answer by a teacher in the village,” Sainath said. “He said ‘We have small robber, big robber and good robber. So we are going with the good robber [Jagmohan Reddy].

According to the poll’s projections, Reddy’s party (YSRC) and the Congress could both end up roughly 11 to 15 seats, making Reddy a key figure in the state. The probability, though, was that Reddy was much more likely to enter into a post-election alliance with the Congress rather than the BJP.

Tamil Nadu:

Arithmetic matters the most Jayalalithaa’s ADIMK has retained much of its favourable rating among the voters, with 65 percent approving of the government, thanks in part to her government’s strong welfare policies and an improving power situation.

“It is largely the welfare component that brings these dividends and she has continued these quite strongly,” Ram said.

Shastri pointed out that the collapse of the DMK alliance has also factored into the strong performance of the AIDMK. “The ones opposing the party are hopelessly divided and this has helped,” he said.

The Congress has also lost credibility in the state because of corruption, primarily related to the 2G scam, both Sainath and Guha said.

Turning support into votes, though, would depend on the arithmetic of who aligns with whom. Congress and DMK will get together for the Lok Sabha elections,” Ram said. “Alliances are very important, including for the AIDMK. Arithmetic will make a big difference.”

The DMK reuniting with the Congress could result in the sum being greater than the parts, the panelists felt.

The other big question was whether Jayalalithaa would be willing to share the stage with Narendra Modi, or whether she harboured Prime Ministerial ambitions of her own. Guha has a gut feeling that she does want to be Prime Minister and so would not share the stage with someone such as Narendra Modi. Sainath felt the explicit sharing of a platform was unlikely before the election, but “all kinds of things are possible after the voting.”

As for the poll showing 10 percent support for the BJP, Ram said that just does not make sense in Tamil Nadu. “10 percent for BJP means we are living in Wonderland.”

Karnataka:

Yeddyurappa is the BJP’s only hope to cut their losses .The polls showed that there was much greater support for Yeddyurappa returning to the BJP but even his return would only stem the BJP’s losses in the state.

“19 seats is a distant dream for the BJP,” said Guha, who felt the Congress had the right man in Siddaramaiah as chief minister and that the memory of the BJP government’s misrule was too recent to be overcome.

Meanwhile Dasgupta felt the “decisive advantage” lay with the Congress because when national elections closely follow state elections, the results are more or less replicated. However, he also said “Yeddyurappa has realised that batting by himself he is unlikely to make a big score. Same for the BJP, so they have to come together.”

On the question of the Narendra Modi effect, Sainath pointed out that Modi had campaigned in Bangalore and some other parts of the state and it had zero effect. Ram concurred, saying, “South India is well inoculated against the Modi factor,. I don’t think his campaigning is going to be a game changer.”

The poll showed Congress with 47 percent share of the vote, while the BJP had just 20 percent, down from 42 percent in 2009. The stakes, though, are very high for the BJP, which stand to lose as many as 14 MPs in the next election.

source:http://www.firstpost.com/