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As India gets ready for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the two key states of West Bengal and Bihar are going to prove very crucial in ensuring who forms the next government at the Centre. Both states are ruled by strong regional parties led by charismatic leaders who are yet to clearly spell out their plans for the next Lok Sabha elections.
According to a CSDS-CNN-IBN survey, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal has consolidated its position since the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009 while the situation is not so clear in Bihar where the Janata Dal (United) snapped its ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) following the elevation of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as election campaign committee chief.
The TMC is not only going retain its dominant position in West Bengal but will leave its rivals way behind if elections are held in July 2013. The survey shows the TMC winning 23-27 seats compared to just 19 that the party had in 2009 even though its vote share has increased by just one percentage point to 32 from 31 the last time.
West Bengal and Bihar are going to prove very crucial in ensuring who forms the next government at the Centre in 2014.
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Mamata's arch-rivals the Left Front has slipped back further and most probably will end with just 7-11 seats from the 15 that it has in the current Lok Sabha while the Congress is likely to bag 5-9 seats and BJP 0-2.
While most people prefer the present TMC government (39 per cent) to previous Left Front government (29 per cent), particularly in rural areas; but in urban areas, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's government favoured more than Mamata Banerjee's.
The TMC government is also being blamed by more people for the chit fund scam with most people also saying that its fallout has been handled poorly by the Mamata Banerjee government. While Mamata rode to power in West Bengal ending the 34-year long rule of the Left Front using the slogan of "parivartan" (change), half of those surveyed say they are yet to see any major change.
While West Bengal essentially remains a two horse race, the picture in Bihar is much more complicated with three-cornered race in most of the seats after the JD(U) parted ways from the BJP. Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is trying hard to regain some lost ground and the survey reveals that the former Bihar chief minister seems to have succeeded to making some inroads.
For Bihar Chief Nitish Kumar the fight has only got tougher and his party may end up with 15-19 seats in the next Lok Sabha, which will lower than its current tally of 20 MPs. Even though the JD(U) has managed to increase it vote share to 25 per cent from 24 in the last Lok Sabha election, BJP's emergence as a strong challenger seems to have hit the JD(U) in some pockets of the state.
The satisfaction level with his government has plunged from an unprecedented high of 90 per cent to 69 while the dissatisfaction is up from 9 per cent to 25.
But the BJP too is not sitting very pretty although the party's vote share has seen a huge jump to 22 per cent from 14. While the eight per cent increase in vote share should have ensured more seats to the BJP, what has stopped its march is an equally impressive show by the RJD which has seen its share rising to 24 per cent from 19 in 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Both the BJP and RJD are projected to win 8-12 seats each by the CSDS-CNN-IBN survey with the Congress, which has hinted that it is eyeing Nitish Kumar's support, a distant fourth with 0-4 seats, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party and others likely to bag 0-2 seats.
Even as the survey shows that Nitish Kumar's strategy to dump and BJP and go alone has not paid rich dividends, there is still some good news for him as the survey also shows that the Bihar Chief Minister remains the most popular non-Congress, non-BJP choice for the Prime Minister of India with 12 per cent of the respondents reposing their faith in him. Nitish is followed by Mayawati (9 per cent), Mamata Banerjee and Samajwadi Party supreme Mulayam Singh Yadav (8 per cent), NCP chief Sharad Pawar and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik (4 per cent) and J Jayalalithaa (3 per cent).
WEST BENGAL
 
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UNDECIDED VOTERS IN WEST BENGAL - 15%
|
|
Parties/Front
|
2009 Actual
|
July 2013 Estimated Vote (%)
|
Change since 2009
|
|
Cong
|
14
|
22
|
+8
|
|
BJP
|
6
|
12
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+6
|
|
TMC
|
31
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32
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+1
|
|
Left
|
43
|
28
|
-15
|
|
Others
|
6
|
6
|
0
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Parties
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Estimated Vote (%) |
Seat projection
|
|
Cong
|
22
|
5-9
|
|
BJP
|
12
|
0-2
|
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TMC
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32
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23-27
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Left
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28
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7-11
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Others
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6
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-
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Most people prefer present TMC govt to previous Left Front govt, particularly in rural areas; however in urban areas, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee’s govt favoured more than Mamata Banerjee’s.
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|
Trinamool or Left: whose government is better?
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Overall
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Rural Bengal
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Urban Bengal
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Muslims
|
|
Present Trinamool govt. better
|
38
|
39
|
37
|
36
|
|
Previous Left govt. better
|
32
|
29
|
39
|
37
|
|
Both equally good
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
2
|
|
Both equally bad
|
13
|
15
|
9
|
15
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
12
|
13
|
10
|
10
|
|
7 out of 10 people have heard about the Chit fund scam
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Chit fund scam
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|
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Heard about it
|
75
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Not heard about it
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25
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Among those who have heard about the Chit fund scam, more people blame the Trinamool Congress than the CPM. Urban Middle and Lower Class blame Trinamool the most for the scam.
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Trinamool or CPM: Who is to blame for the Chit fund scam?
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Overall
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Urban Middle Class
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Urban Lower Class
|
|
Trinamool Congress to blame
|
29
|
38
|
36
|
|
CPM to blame
|
20
|
27
|
21
|
|
Both
|
39
|
28
|
23
|
|
Neither
|
11
|
7
|
18
|
|
Others
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
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Among those who have heard of the Chit fund scam, most say its fallout has been handled poorly by the Trinamool government.
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Trinamool Govt.’s handling of the Chit fund scam
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Overall
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Well handled
|
21
|
|
Poorly handled
|
44
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
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35
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More than half the people yet to make up their mind about Mamata’s decision to leave UPA; Mamata seen as arrogant by most.
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Statements on Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool Congress
|
Fully agree
|
Somewhat agree
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Somewhat disagree
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Somewhat disagree
|
No opinion
|
|
Trinamool Congress’s decision to withdraw from the Cong-led UPA govt. at the Centre was correct.
|
16
|
10
|
8
|
15
|
51
|
|
Mamata Banerjee is arrogant and intolerant of criticism.
|
27
|
16
|
8
|
10
|
39
|
|
Mamata Banerjee government has mishandled the ‘Gorkhaland’ issue
|
19
|
14
|
7
|
10
|
50
|
|
Mamata Banerjee has succeeded in bringing real Partivartan in West Bengal over the last two years.
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20
|
22
|
8
|
23
|
27
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|
Maoist influence declining in West Bengal?
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|
In the last one year Maoists in my area have become…
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Overall
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Rural Bengal
|
|
More powerful
|
24
|
16
|
|
Less powerful
|
38
|
41
|
|
No difference
|
11
|
13
|
|
No presence of Maoists in my area
|
5
|
6
|
|
Don’t know/Can’t say
|
22
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24
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Note:
1. All figures are in percentage and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Sample size is 1397.
3. Question asked: In the last one year, have you noticed any change in the activities of the Maoists in your area? Have they become more powerful, less powerful or do you notice no difference?
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BIHAR
 
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UNDECIDED VOTERS IN BIHAR - 3%
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|
Parties
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2009 Actual
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July 2013 Estimated Vote
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Change since 2009
|
|
Cong
|
10
|
10
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0
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BJP
|
14
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22
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+8
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JDU
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24
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25
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+1
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|
RJD
|
19
|
24
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+5
|
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LJP
|
7
|
3
|
-4
|
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Others
|
26
|
16
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-10
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Parties
|
Estimated Vote (%)
|
Seat projection
|
|
Cong
|
10
|
0-4
|
|
BJP
|
22
|
8-12
|
|
JDU
|
25
|
15-19
|
|
RJD
|
24
|
8-12
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LJP
|
3
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0-2
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Others
|
16
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0-2
|
|
Nitish is still the most popular leader in Bihar but his popularity has dropped since the last election.
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Chief Minister preference after the next Assembly elections in Bihar
|
2010
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2013
|
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Nitish Kumar
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53
|
44
|
|
Lalu Prasad Yadav
|
26
|
25
|
|
Sushil Modi
|
1
|
7
|
|
Rabri Devi
|
2
|
2
|
|
Ramvilas Paswan
|
4
|
2
|
|
Others
|
10
|
7
|
|
Can’t say/No choice
|
4
|
13
|
|
Most people, including JDU’s core voters, are of the opinion that Nitish should have accepted Modi for the sake of the JDU-BJP alliance; Muslims however feel differently.
|
|
Opinion on the JDU-BJP alliance break up over Narendra Modi
|
Overall
|
Traditional JDU supporters
|
Kurmi, Koeri
|
Muslims
|
|
Nitish should have accepted Modi as a leader as it was important to maintain the JDU-BJP alliance
|
38
|
38
|
41
|
24
|
|
BJP should not have promoted Modi in order to save the alliance with JDU
|
20
|
26
|
27
|
35
|
|
Can’t say
|
42
|
36
|
32
|
42
|
|
Most people blame JDU for the break of the JDU-BJP alliance; however JDU’s core voters are more balanced.
|
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JDU or BJP: Who is to more responsible for the break up?
|
Overall
|
Traditional JDU supporters
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Kurmi, Koeri
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Muslims
|
|
JDU more responsible
|
33
|
24
|
30
|
20
|
|
BJP more responsible
|
19
|
36
|
25
|
30
|
|
Both JDU and BJP are equally responsible
|
18
|
20
|
17
|
22
|
|
Neither JDU nor BJP are responsible
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
7
|
|
Can’t say
|
26
|
18
|
26
|
21
|
|
JDU should fight the next Lok Sabha elections alone, say most
|
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What should JDU’s Lok Sabha strategy be?
|
Overall
|
Traditional JDU supporters
|
Traditional Congress supporters
|
Kurmi, Koeri
|
Muslims
|
|
JDU should fight Lok Sabha elections alone
|
40
|
49
|
44
|
47
|
39
|
|
JDU should tie-up with another party
|
18
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
24
|
|
Can’t say
|
42
|
34
|
38
|
37
|
37
|
|
Among the few who want JDU to ally with another party, most want it to tie-up with Congress.
|
|
Who should the JDU tie up with for the next Lok Sabha polls?
|
Overall
|
Traditional JDU supporters
|
Traditional Congress supporters
|
Kurmi, Koeri
|
Muslims
|
|
JDU should tie-up with Congress
|
25
|
40
|
54
|
24
|
32
|
|
JDU should tie-up with BJP
|
12
|
10
|
4
|
10
|
6
|
|
JDU should tie-up with RJD
|
8
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
9
|
|
JDU should tie-up with Others
|
5
|
10
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
50
|
40
|
39
|
62
|
49
|
|
Governance report card of Nitish’s govt is quite negative, except on the Development and employment fronts.
|
|
In the last two and a half years of JDU-led rule..
|
Has increased
|
Has remained same
|
Has decreased
|
|
Corruption
|
57
|
18
|
19
|
|
Employment
|
37
|
37
|
18
|
|
Crime/Murder/Kidnapping etc.
|
40
|
24
|
31
|
|
Pace of development
|
52
|
28
|
11
|
|
Bureaucratic dominance (Afsarshahi)
|
65
|
14
|
7
|
INDIA'S ECONOMIC SITUATION
 
|
People’s satisfaction with their personal financial condition has gone down
|
|
Satisfaction with personal financial condition
|
2004
|
2009
|
2011
|
2013
|
|
Satisfied
|
63
|
62
|
64
|
59
|
|
Dissatisfied
|
33
|
29
|
32
|
34
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
4
|
9
|
4
|
7
|
|
People of all classes less satisfied with their personal financial condition compared to 2011
|
|
Economic Class
|
Satisfied with personal financial condition 2011
|
Satisfied with personal financial condition 2013
|
|
Upper
|
75
|
72
|
|
Middle
|
72
|
65
|
|
Lower
|
63
|
61
|
|
Poor
|
49
|
47
|
|
Economic condition of the country mostly rated ‘so-so’ or ‘bad’
|
|
Perception of country’s economic situation
|
All India
|
|
Very good
|
4
|
|
Good
|
17
|
|
So-so
|
32
|
|
Bad
|
20
|
|
Very bad
|
11
|
|
Can’t say
|
16
|
|
West India and Central India more positive about the economy than other parts
|
|
Perception of country’s economic situation
|
Good
|
So-so
|
Bad
|
Can’t say
|
|
All India
|
21
|
32
|
31
|
16
|
|
By region
|
|
South India
|
17
|
22
|
32
|
30
|
|
North India
|
21
|
36
|
29
|
15
|
|
Central India
|
29
|
37
|
23
|
12
|
|
West India
|
31
|
36
|
26
|
7
|
|
East India
|
17
|
33
|
38
|
12
|
|
By Class
|
|
Upper
|
29
|
32
|
34
|
6
|
|
Middle
|
22
|
34
|
32
|
12
|
|
Lower
|
20
|
33
|
29
|
18
|
|
Poor
|
18
|
30
|
31
|
22
|
|
By locality
|
|
Metros
|
21
|
39
|
30
|
10
|
|
Towns/Cities
|
21
|
31
|
37
|
11
|
|
Villages
|
21
|
32
|
30
|
17
|
|
Perception of economic situation of the country is much better among those satisfied with their personal financial condition
|
|
Perception of country’s economic situation
|
All India
|
Those satisfied with personal financial condition
|
Beneficiaries of NREGA
|
|
Good
|
21
|
28
|
24
|
|
So-so
|
32
|
37
|
30
|
|
Bad
|
31
|
23
|
27
|
|
Can’t say
|
16
|
12
|
19
|
|
BJP viewed as being better for handling economic crises than Congress, particularly among the economically better off and urban respondents
|
|
Which party is better for handling economic crises?
|
All India
|
Non-Cong, non-BJP supporters
|
Middle and Upper class
|
Urban voters
|
|
Cong is better
|
23
|
17
|
24
|
23
|
|
BJP is better
|
26
|
21
|
30
|
30
|
|
Both
|
10
|
9
|
11
|
10
|
|
Neither
|
15
|
22
|
16
|
17
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
26
|
31
|
19
|
21
|
|
Across classes there is unanimity that the gap between the rich and poor has increased under the UPA
|
|
During the last four years of UPA-2’s rule, the gap between rich and poor has...
|
All India
|
Poor
|
Lower Class
|
Middle Class
|
Upper Class
|
|
Increased
|
45
|
45
|
44
|
45
|
48
|
|
Remained same
|
32
|
29
|
33
|
34
|
34
|
|
Decreased
|
9
|
7
|
9
|
11
|
11
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
14
|
18
|
14
|
10
|
6
|
|
Mixed opinion about employment opportunities under UPA; Urban India more positive than Rural India
|
|
During the last four years of UPA-2’s rule, employment opportunities have...
|
All India
|
Youth (18-35 years)
|
36-45 years
|
Urban voters
|
Rural voters
|
|
Increased
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
34
|
27
|
|
Remained same
|
29
|
31
|
30
|
28
|
29
|
|
Decreased
|
29
|
30
|
29
|
29
|
29
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
13
|
10
|
11
|
9
|
15
|
|
Perception about Price rise much stronger compared to 2011
|
|
During UPA-2’s rule, prices of essential commodities have…
|
2011
|
2013
|
|
Increased
|
51
|
81
|
|
Remained same
|
24
|
9
|
|
Decreased
|
9
|
3
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
16
|
7
|
|
Perception about price rise is strongest among urban lower class and rural upper class
|
|
During UPA-2’s rule, prices of essential commodities have…
|
All India
|
Urban Lower Class
|
Rural Upper Class
|
|
Increased
|
81
|
87
|
85
|
|
Remained same
|
9
|
6
|
9
|
|
Decreased
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
|
Can’t say/No opinion
|
7
|
4
|
3
|
|
Central govt. much more to blame for Price rise than State government
|
|
Who is more responsible for Price rise?
|
|
State govt. more to blame
|
Central govt. more to blame
|
|
ALL INDIA
|
12
|
34
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
18
|
14
|
|
Assam
|
9
|
9
|
|
Bihar
|
10
|
59
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
19
|
20
|
|
Delhi
|
12
|
22
|
|
Gujarat
|
13
|
25
|
|
Haryana
|
3
|
29
|
|
Jharkhand
|
7
|
38
|
|
Karnataka
|
9
|
46
|
|
Kerala
|
10
|
25
|
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
16
|
41
|
|
Maharashtra
|
13
|
22
|
|
Orissa
|
18
|
52
|
|
Punjab
|
10
|
31
|
|
Rajasthan
|
6
|
24
|
|
Tamil Nadu
|
14
|
33
|
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
9
|
42
|
|
West Bengal
|
13
|
34
|
source:ibnlive.in.com/politics/politics_news/
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