Shiv Sena & JDU can’t afford separation with BJP in upcoming Assembly Elections
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- Category: Maharashtra Political News
- Last Updated: Monday, 01 July 2019 12:51
Shiv Sena & JDU can’t afford separation with BJP in upcoming Assembly Elections
JDU and Shiv Sena appear to have a penchant for singing a different tune than BJP on several issues, but unlike in the previous assembly elections in Bihar and Maharashtra, both of the parties may have very few options to contest the next state polls in alliance with BJP. Assembly elections will be held in Maharashtra this year and will be held in 2020 in Bihar.
In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena joined the BJP-led government immediately after the last assembly elections of the state. On the other hand, it took almost two years for the JDU to rejoin BJP. The two oldest allies of BJP are different from the other partners, in which, they left the BJP-led NDA and opted to contest the previous elections alone or with other allies in their respective states.
With JDU leader Nitish Kumar taking a different position on BJP manifesto promises such as instant talaq, NRC and Article 370, speculation is rife that as the assembly polls approach he may seek to part ways with BJP. But a look at the past election data suggests that like Sena, JDU may have no options but to remain with BJP if it wants to grow. Also, the rules of the game have changed with BJP’s thumping win in the recent general elections. In 2010, JDU and BJP contested the assembly elections together. JDU got 115 seats and BJP 91, out of 243. At that time the vote share of JDU was 22.58% and that of BJP was 16.49%. In 2013, JDU moved away from NDA and contested the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 alone. There was a drop of more than six percentage points in JDU’s vote share to 16.04% in 2014 from 22.58 in 2010 and the party won only two seats out of 40.
On the other hand, BJP increased its vote share in 2014 from16.50% to 30% in 2014 and won 22 seats. In 2015, JDU was part of the grand alliance and contested the assembly elections with RJD and Congress, while BJP had smaller allies in Ram Vilas Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi. While the opposition alliance managed to form the government, JDU won 71 seats and managed to retain its share by winning 16.83% votes. With 53 seats, BJP got 24. 5% votes in 2015.
JDU contested Lok Sabha elections 2019 with BJP after 10 years. Not only it wins 16 out of 17 seats, but it also improved its vote share by almost five per cent to 21.82%. BJP still receives a vote share of 24%, larger than any other party in Bihar.