ET election poll 2014: Narendra Modi gaining from floating votes, middle-class in Uttar Pradesh, Economics times Poll projection, Economic Times, Lok sabha poll 2014, Lok Sabha, Narendra Modi, BJP, Congress.
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- Last Updated: Thursday, 22 January 2015 20:50
ET election poll 2014: Narendra Modi gaining from floating votes, middle-class in Uttar Pradesh.
Last Saturday, Narendra Modi began his campaign in Uttar Pradesh with a big public meeting in Kanpur. In the coming weeks, he will travel across the state and also to neighbouring Bihar.
This will take Modi's quest for the PM's post to arguably its most crucial battleground. UP and Bihar - along with Andhra Pradesh - are going to see multi-cornered battles in 2014. Together, these states account for 162 seats in a Lok Sabha of 543.
A small vote difference can lead to dramatic shift in seats. This time, even those two states have 'regressed' into multi-polarity and so joined UP. It is in that context that one needs to analyse Modi's approach as well as ET's pre-election survey for UP and Bihar, published last week.
Why are the two Hindi heartland provinces vital for Modi? Simply, if he wins an incremental vote for his party, he can only help it marginally improve an already strong position in states such as Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. In Tamil Nadu or West Bengal, even if the Modi factor brings in, for argument's sake, 10% of the popular vote, it may still not translate into seats.
However, the 120 seats of Bihar (40) and UP (80) are a tantalising prize. If conditions go his way, Modi can win a sizeable chunk. The pre-poll survey indicates gains for BJP even before Modi has begun his mass contact programme in the two states. Certainly, there is a curiosity about him and he has galvanised BJP supporters. However, to win substantially he has to go beyond that and attract other social constituencies.
In Bihar, it is unclear if BJP's principal challenge will come from Nitish Kumar or Lalu Prasad. One possible implication of Rahul Gandhi nixing the 'convicted MPs' ordinance could be Congress dumping Lalu and embracing Nitish. This will probably have Muslim voters backing the Nitish-Congress alliance and reduce RJD largely to its Yadav base. However, an angry Lalu could play a spoiler.
In such a situation, as the opinion poll suggests, BJP may gain and finish first in Bihar. Nevertheless, constricted by its own social and geographical reach, it cannot hope to take more than 20 seats. Even though BJP won only 10 of 80 seats in 2009, UP leaves more room for optimism. Broadly, there are three reasons: First, the state has a sizeable floating vote that has of late voted on governance and economic issues , rather than on community lines.
It is possible to identify families and demographic groups that backed BJP in 2004, and voted for BSP in 2007 (assembly polls ), Congress in 2009 and SP in 2012. This time, with the Modi appeal, BJP reckons it may get lucky. Second, constituencies with a strong urban middle class and/or upper-caste quotient gave Congress 21 seats in 2009.
In many of these, there is deep disappointment with the UPA. In a national election, it may lead to a surge in Modi's favour. Third, Modi's OBC status and positioning as an underdog - one who has come up the hard way- conveys a powerful political narrative, especially to youth voters. Where could these take Modi in UP? As one BJP functionary says, "Either he flops and we stop at 15-20 seats. Or we go up to anything between 50 and 60." Let the betting begin.