Assembly Election 2014– Few reasons behind BJP confidence for JK poll,Jammu Kashmir election news updates, J&K political news , J&K assembly election 2014

Assembly Election 2014– Few reasons behind BJP confidence for JK poll

Jammu & Kashmir goes to polls at the end of the year. BJP has set an ambitious target of 44 seats (out of 87) for itself. While this looks daunting, it is not impossible. The following factors point towards this.

Great performance in Lok Sabha Polls

BJP bagged 3/6 seats (Jammu, Udhampur and Leh) in the Lok Sabha. PDP won 3 and the ruling NC-Congress combine got zero seats.

Of course, State elections are fought on local issues and BJP won’t have the advantage of Modi campaigning extensively. BJP is eyeing the Hindu vote-bank with talk of rehabilitation of Kashmiri Pandits. But they can’t win without Muslim support in State elections.

In a State where 67 per cent of population are Muslims, this is no mean achievement. In the Kashmir valley, Muslims comprise of 97 per cent, in Jammu 31 per cent and in Leh 47 per cent of population.

Modi’s Frequent Visits

Modi has visited the State several times in a span of 100 days. This is more than any Prime Minister would have done in his entire tenure. This gets people to believe that he is serious and cares for the people of the State. Add to this the Rs 1,000 crore aid for flood and what becomes evident is that the Central Government does care for the people of Kashmir. Modi personally went to take stock of flood situation.

Split between National Conference and Congress

Current partners have decided not to contest elections together. This will split votes and help the BJP. The split is a matter of convenience. Each party will blame the other for the State’s woes. After elections, if there is a chance, they might again come together in the name of “secularism” to prevent “communal forces” from becoming stronger. This will be regular propaganda which they have been engaging in for years. But yeh jo public hai yeh sab jaanti hai!

Strong anti-incumbency against State Government

Omar Abdullah has been in power for the last 10 years and like it happens for any Government which has been enjoying power for long, he has to battle anti-incumbency. People want change. This will help the BJP. PDP and BJP are the only parties which provide an alternative. People might be tempted to have a Government in the State which is not antagonistic towards the Centre and which enjoys good equations to ensure development of the State.

Muslims want Development

The Muslim community is fed up of appeasement politics and being used by the so-called secular parties as vote-bank. They want development. They want peace and security, good education for their children and jobs. The State’s Muslims see peace and prosperity of their brothers in Gujarat as an example that it is only Modi who can bring change. I have already, in one of my earlier articles,explained how some Muslims silently voted for NaMo in Uttar Pradesh to ensure a resounding victory. Critics said Hindu votes were enough for Modi to win. If BJP wins Jammu & Kashmir, can they deny credit to Muslims for the victory.

Thirty years of insurgency has not given Kashmiris anything. Lives have been lost. Business / tourism has been slow, in turn impacting the livelihood of people. Kashmir has tremendous tourism potential. It has a lot of natural beauty. Places like Singapore and Dubai which have comparatively lesser natural beauty, are swamped by tourists. Dubai, which has no oil, is able to run a tax-free country due to receipts from the tourism sector. For all this, we require peace in the valley. A handful of separatists are causing disturbances. Fortunately, they are fast losing support.

In Gujarat, 12 per cent of Government jobs and 11 per cent of police jobs are held by Muslims, higher than in any other State. This highlights the doublespeak of so-called secular parties.

Separatists need to be defeated

Separatists demand an independent Kashmir. What will they do with it? They have no clue, no vision, and no blueprint. These pro-Pakistan parties wreak havoc at the instruction of the ISI. Locals seem to have understood that there is nothing in it for them except for destruction and insecurity. These separatists need to be shown their place.

Local people don’t care about Article 370

The youth of Kashmir care about jobs. They are not so touchy about Article 370. Article 370 is perhaps also one of the causes behind low development of the State. This has prevented people from other States to come into the State, invest in and mingle with the people. This has also prevented people of the State to move out in search of jobs as they are more comfortable in the state because of special privilege rules. This could be a game changer.

Modi Magic

Even though Modi can’t campaign extensively, he has tried to build a rapport with locals with regular visits. His pro-development image may help BJP wean away Muslim votes from separatist parties. The TINA factor also will help BJP. The alternative to NC-Congress combine is PDP. PDP also faces the same issue — it goes soft on separatists because of vote-bank politics.

Organisation skills of Amit Shah

Amit Shah’s skills will be put to test in coming Assembly Polls. Modi has confidence in him plus the whole BJP-RSS machinery is behind him. He has already started campaign by visiting the border area villages.

Suspension of talks with Pakistan

This has sent a strong message and conjured the nationalist fervour in the State marginalising the separatists. If BJP wins Jammu & Kashmir, it will be a victory for India and will usher in the beginning of a new era.

 src:niticentral

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