UK Election Opinion poll: London offers Labour chance of big gains at general election, says poll, British Election updates, UK opinion poll, General election opinion poll

UK Election Opinion poll: London offers Labour chance of big gains at general election, says poll

Guardian/ICM survey puts party in line to gain eight seats in capital as Tories fall back and Lib Dem support collapses.

Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

 The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

To the south, Croydon Central would be another gain from the Conservatives, as would both Enfield North and Hendon on the opposite side of London. Labour would also make two gains at Liberal Democrat expense: Brent Central, and Hornsey and Wood Green.

The ICM figures also show that the Lib Dems collapse – their vote falling by more than half, from 22% to 9%. Ukip climbs 7 to reach 9%, and the Greens climb 6 to 8%.

Sinking Lib Dem fortunes would deliver a single Tory gain, at Sutton and Cheam. With the single exception of this constituency, where Lord Ashcroft’s constituency poll has suggested that the local Lib Dem, Paul Burstow, retains a comfortable lead, all these projections from the new ICM survey are in line with the Guardian’s national poll projection.

Should Miliband make the sort of gains that this survey suggests, then it will reinforce a trend, which stretches back to the early Blair years, of Labour overperforming in the capital.

This was not always the pattern historically. In 1987 for example, it was Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives who took the capital by storm, exceeding their strong national standing in that year by more than 3 points.

In more recent times, however, the demographic currents of the capital have helped the left: the population is younger, better-educated and most particularly ethnically diverse.

The economic recovery started earlier in London than in most of the UK, heightening the sense of it as the engine of British growth, and some election proposals – such as Labour’s mansion tax – would work to redistribute London wealth to the regions.

The poll tried to tease out whether such ideas were producing a backlash, by asking Londoners how they felt about the large share of UK taxes they paid. But while 38% felt that more revenues paid by Londoners should be retained within the city to solve its social problems, a very similar 36% felt it is right that Londonsupports the rest of the country financially because it is more prosperous.

Only 21% hanker for the third alternative of an “entirely new deal with the rest of the country, like that which Scotland and Wales have achieved through devolution”.If it ever came to “a referendum on making London an independent city state, separate from the rest of the UK”, only 14% of Londoners would vote to go it alone, while 82% would say no.

The survey asked about the crop of potential runners and riders to take over from Boris Johnson as London mayor, when his term expires in 2016.

The highest-profile name to have suggested himself as a potential Conservative candidate is the former Arsenal and England footballer Sol Campbell. Only 18% of citizens judge he would be good for London, while 28% feel he would be bad for the city, giving him a net score of -10.

Fellow Tory and environmental campaigner Zac Goldsmith would fare little better with a net score of –6.

In line with the poll’s overall findings, several Labour names do better. Diane Abbott, who has put herself forward, scores +13, while the former home secretary Alan Johnson – who has not expressed any interest – scores even higher, with +18.

The bookies’ favourite, Tessa Jowell, does somewhat less well, but still comes out with +11.

Net scores were lower, though still positive, for three lower-profile politicians on whom only a minority of respondents had a view: David Lammy (+9), Sadiq Khan (+2) and Oona King (+5). By contrast, the name of the Labour comedian Eddie Izzard was better known, but less popular as a runner for the mayor’s job: he scored –6.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a random sample of 1003 Londoners aged 18+ by telephone on 20-26 March 2015. Interviews were conducted across London and the results have been weighted to the profile of all London adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

src:theguardian

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