Opinion Poll: May2015's UK general Election forecast and how it compares
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- Last Updated: Monday, 02 March 2015 15:22
Opinion Poll: May2015's UK general Election forecast and how it compares
There are 650 seats in the House of Commons. A party needs to win one more than half to form a majority government. 16 of the 18 governments formed since the Second World War have been majorities.
2010 was one of the rare exceptions. The Conservatives won more votes than Labour did under Tony Blair in 2005, but they are disadvantaged by our voting system. They only won 307 seats – 19 short of a majority.
But who will win this year's election? Every day, our election forecasting-machine is using the latest polls to make a prediction. First, we work out what the national polls imply will happen in every seat, and then we separate any seats Lord Ashcroft has polled.
He is polling the election's most marginal – or closely fought – seats. They will decide the election. We plug them into our model, and then adjust them as national polls change. Scroll down to see our predictions for every seat, or compare May2015 to other forecasts and make your own prediction.
|
Party |
IMPLIED BY POLLS |
ASHCROFT SEATS |
OVERALL PREDICTION (±2010) |
|
Conservative |
235 |
36 |
271 (-36) |
|
Labour |
213 |
58 |
271 (+13) |
|
Liberal Democrat |
9 |
16 |
25 (-32) |
|
UKIP |
2 |
2 |
4 (+4) |
|
SNP |
41 |
15 |
56 (+50) |
|
Green |
0 |
1 |
1 (0) |
|
Other |
22 |
0 |
22 (+1) |
|
RESULT |
HUNG PARLIAMENT, CON/LAB TIE |
||
|
Party |
ELECTION FORECAST |
ELECTIONS ETC |
THE GUARDIAN |
LADBROKES ODDS |
|
Conservative |
285 |
279 |
276 |
280.5 |
|
Labour |
279 |
283 |
271 |
272.5 |
|
Liberal Democrat |
25 |
23 |
27 |
28.5 |
|
UKIP |
1 |
3 |
3 |
5.5 |
|
SNP |
39 |
40 |
51 |
38.5 |
|
Green |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Other |
20 |
21 |
21 |
21.5 |
|
RESULT |
HUNG |
HUNG |
HUNG |
HUNG |
src:May2015