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ABP News-Nielsen’s latest Opinion Poll has projected a fall in the number of seats of the grand alliance of JD(U)-RJD and Congress in Bihar when compared to what they achieved in July.

The grand coalition was projected to win 129 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, according to our Survey conducted two months ago. However, this time around, the Opinion Poll has predicted that the Nitish Kumar-led association is set to lose seven seats thereby dropping down to 122.

According to the Opinion Poll, the BJP-led combine including LJP, RLSP and HAM is likely to win six seats more improving their tally to 118 as compared to the last conducted Survey. But NDA running short of four seats demonstrates that it has failed to gather the required magical figure of 122 seats.

Regardless of the numbers plummeting, 122 still holds a significant figure as the ruling party stands a steady chance to form the state government with its chosen partners in the high-voltage elections that are to commence from October 12.

The narrow margin victory of the grand alliance that is formed to keep the Modi-led BJP at bay exhibits a neck-and-fight.

Independents & Others are seen managing only three seats in the 5-phase polls whose actual results are to be declared on November 8.

Tuesday’s opinion poll gives JD(U) and its allies a vote share of 43 per cent. It received the same percentage in our earlier conducted pre-poll survey.  Encouraging signs for the BJP and its allies is that they been predicted to get 39 per cent votes which is up by more than 7 per cent. Others likely to acquire 18 per cent of the vote share.

In the 2010 Assembly polls, JD(U) and BJP gathered 206 seats by allying together. Lalu Prasad's RJD-led alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan could manage only 25 seats.

During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA consisting of BJP, Paswan LJP and Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP won in 174 Assembly segments.  The Lalu-Nitish association won just 51 Assembly segments in the face of Modi wave.

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