Analysis for Haryana assembly election 2014, Haryana election news updates, Haryana political news, latest and political news 2014

Analysis for Haryana assembly election 2014

Haryana goes to polls on October 15. In this first part of a two-part series on Haryana Assembly polls, we take a look at the key parties and their performance / vote share in the last three elections since 2000. In the second part, we will take a look at Lok Sabha elections 2014 outcome in the State, main issues in the elections and expected outcome.

The BJP is super excited in Haryana as it smells an opportunity to bag another State in its kitty. Strong performance in the Lok Sabha election, where it bagged 7/10 seats has given it the much needed confidence. The incumbent Congress Government has been ruling the State for the past 10 years and as it usually happens with such long tenures, it is battling a strong anti-incumbency wave.

People are fed up with land scams, corruption allegations against Ministers and poor law & order. Infighting within the Congress leadership is not helping either. There have been an exodus of leaders from the party prominent being Chaudhary Birender Singh.

The battle is three-cornered with Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) also in the fray. This makes it interesting. BJP has parted ways with its ally for many years Kuldeep Bishnoi’s Haryana Janhit Congress (6 per cent vote share in Lok Sabha) which could also play a role. BJP however dismisses any such impact. This is part of the BJP’s strategy to reduce dependence on allies and build its own network (as seen in Maharashtra as well, where it parted ways with its 25 year old ally Shiv Sena).

Haryana has a population of 2.5 crore with two-thirds of the people living in rural areas. Haryana has 90 seats and a voting population of 1.62 crore including 74.5 lakh women voters. As many as 808 candidates are in the fray including 174 independent candidates. If you see the last three elections in the decade (2000, 2004 and 2009) while INLD bagged the State in 2000, Congress came back and won in 2004 and 2009 consecutively.

INLD bagged a simple majority in 2000 with 47 seats and 31 per cent vote share. Congress got a higher vote-share at 31 per cent but bagged only 21 seats implying it has a wider State wise vote share while INLD is strong in certain parts of state. Congress bagged two-thirds majority in 2005 (its best performance) and won 67 seats with 43 per cent vote-share.

INLD finished second with 9 seats and 27 per cent vote-share. In 2009, Congress just scraped through being the single largest party with 40 / 90 seats and forming govt. with help of independents. It’s vote share declined by 8 per cent. INLD registered a strong improvement in performance with 31 seats, with a marginal 1 per cent decline in vote share.

The State has not been a strong bastion for BJP with its best performance being in 1987 where it won 16 seats. It won 2 and 4 seats in 2005 & 2009 with 10 per cent vote share. Chautala’s party has a sizable presence in the state and was in reckoning for the top slot in 2009.

The family’s image though has taken a beating after they were convicted in teacher recruitment scam. BJP is purely relying on anti-incumbency against Congress, Modi factor and Amit Shah’s organisational skills. The party doesn’t have a strong national leader from the State, though Captain Abhimanyu is amongst the taller leaders.

In 2009, there were not very close contests as is typical of a three-cornered fight as main fight was between Congress and INLD. This time there could he higher close finishes though. BJP is keen to score its maiden victory in the state but it’s a Herculean task.

src:niticentral

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