SWOT Analysis of Janata Parivaar for Bihar Polls 2015 – Part 2, SWOT Analysis Bihar Polls , Bihar Assembly election 2015

New Delhi: Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh with RJD supremo Lalu Prasad, JDS chief HD Devegowda and JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar during a news conference to announce their merger in New Delhi on Wednesday. Six parties of the erstwhile Janata parivar decided to merge and form a new party with Mulayam Singh Yadav its chief.

In Part 2 we take a look at the opportunities and threats to this grand alliance.

For people unfamiliar with SWOT, while strengths and weaknesses are internal (on which you can exercise control), opportunities and threats are external (on which you do not have any control).

OPPORTUNITIES

1. No clear leadership / CM candidate of NDA

NDA has chosen not to declare its CM candidate. It is trying to pitch a battle between Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. As witnessed in elections (Lok Sabha and state elections of Delhi / Rajasthan), leadership announcement helps the parties. Bihar politics is built around caste and BJP may be afraid that projecting one caste leader could antagonise other caste voters, that’s why it has not announced any CM candidate.

Other reason is situation like Delhi, as BJP has many CM aspirants in Bihar – Sushil Modi, Nand Kishore Yadav, Mangal Pandey, CP Thakur, Shatrughan Sinha, Shahnawaz Hussain, Radhey Mohan Singh, the list goes on and on. Additionally its allies also are eyeing the CM chair – Manjhi, Paswan and Kushwaha. To prevent infighting it has decided not to go ahead with any announcement.

2. Seat distribution among NDA partners is tricky

NDA has now four parties in it – BJP, Paswan’s LJP, Kushwaha’s RLSP and Manjhi’s newly formed party. In Lok Sabha BJP fought on 30 seats, Paswan on 7 and Kushwaha on 3 seats. By this formula BJP would get 180, Paswan 40 and Kushwaha 20 odd seats. Entry of Manjhi has made matters tricky. 

So seat sharing talks in NDA is as tricky as in Janata Parivaar. However, they would have less problem of rebel candidates. BJP last time in 2010 fought on only 102 seats, this time it will be much higher. Paswan’s LJP fought on 75 seats last time, so they may see some rebel action.

3. Scholarships to financially weaker sections among upper caste Hindus

Nitish has announced scholarships for all upper caste students having annual family income up to Rs. 1.50 lakh. These students would be paid Rs. 10,000 on passing the matriculation examination in first division. Besides, upper caste students from Class I to X from the same income group will also be paid scholarship. This is aimed at making a dent into BJP vote bank. Upper castes account for 15% of state population. 78% of them voted for BJP in national elections last year. Holding onto this vote bank is essential for BJP strategy in these polls.

4. NDA government honeymoon period over – pressure beginning to show with Lalitgate / Vyapam episode

The honey moon period of Modi government is clearly over. People want them to perform and see tangible results on the ground.

So elections in Bihar is not only a reflection of Nitish government but also Modi government performance at the center. Nitish will attack Modi over non-fulfilment of promises. He hopes to wean away people who are disenchanted with his government record at the center.

5. Delhi elections shows BJP can be defeated by a united opposition / no split of votes take place

In Delhi state elections held in early 2015, AAP handsomely defeated BJP. The only state which BJP lost after its spectacular Lok Sabha victory.

AAP got 54%, BJP 32% and Congress 10%. Congress vote share was down 15%. Result AAP 67, BJP 3, Congress 0.

In the elections to the state before the Lok Sabha polls, there was a hung assembly with AAP and Congress getting 25% vote share each and BJP getting 33% vote share. Result AAP 28, BJP 32, Congress 8, Others 2.

Even in Bihar Lok Sabha polls in May 2014, a three way fight between BJP, JDU and RJD ensured split of anti BJP votes and resultantly BJP got 39%, RJD 30% and JDU 16% vote share. Result BJP 31, RJD 7, JDU 2 seats.

THREATS

1. Expelled leader Manjhi will dent into Mahadalit votes which account for 10% of population

JDU expelled Manjhi who was made CM after Nitish resigned owing moral responsibility following Lok Sabha debacle. Manjhi got into a tiff with Nitish challenging his and Sharad Yadav’s authority over the party. 

Manjhi has formed his own party and entered NDA fold. He belongs to Mahadalit category which account for 10% of population. His removal from CM post by Nitish has been projected as being anti mahadalit. With Paswan having majority control over Dalit vote bank, this could be a big headache for Nitish. In Lok Sabha when Manjhi was in JDU, NDA bagged 42% of dalit / mahadalit votes.

2. Pappu Yadav expelled from RJD will dent into Yadav vote bank in North Bihar

RJD has expelled Pappu Yadav for anti-party activities. Yadavs account for 14% of Bihar population and have traditionally been Lalu supporters. 64% of Yadavs voted for Lalu in Lok Sabha. Pappu has a sizeable influence in some districts in North Bihar and may dent into traditional RJD vote bank.

3. Sushil Modi of BJP catching up with Nitish in popularity charts at 42%

Though Nitish leads the race for most suitable CM candidate with 52% votes, Sushil Modi of BJP is not far with 42% votes. There is still 2-3 months before elections and threat for JDU is that Sushil can catch up backed by special status / financial package announced by center. An interesting question to ask voters in opinion polls (and which is not being asked) is what % of voters won’t vote for Nitish because of Lalu.

4. BJP able to take credit for development in Bihar

There is no doubt that Bihar has seen massive development under Nitish. The war will be over who takes credit for this development. JDU and BJP ruled Bihar together for 7.5 years from November 2005 to mid-2013. JDU would fight to take credit based on the fact that Nitish was the leader of the coalition. 

Supporters of Nitish believe JDU is responsible for the development, supporters of BJP feel otherwise. If BJP is able to take the credit for development it will leave Nitish with loss of its biggest poll plank. 

5. BJP able to sell the story that same government at the centre and in the state will lead to better development of Bihar

Additionally, BJP has coined the slogan “same government at the center and in the state will lead to better development”. This has worked in 4 states earlier last year. This appeals to a section of undecided voters.

src: niticentral

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