UK Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection, Who will win in UK polls, UK Election Guardian Survey Result, The Guardian poll projection methodology

UK Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection

Our model takes in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projects the result in each of the 650 Westminster constituencies using an adjusted average.

What are the polls saying today?

The number of seats which would be won by each party based on current polling

• Also Read: UK Election Opinion Poll, UK Opinion poll 2015, UK Opinion poll 2015, Who will win in UK polls, UK Election Survey Result, UK Exit poll, UK Exit poll 2015, UK exit poll 2015

Who has the numbers needed to govern?

With no party likely to win an outright majority, alliances will need to be formed

• Lab + SNP=322 seats

Lab and the SNP would need the support of a third party to reach a clear majority — although anything over 321 would probably survive a confidence vote

• Con + Lib = 303 seats

The current governing Con/LD coalition could not form a stable government

• Con + Lib + UKIP = 306 seats

Even by coopting Ukip, the current coalition wouldn't secure a majority

• Labour + Lib = 298 seats

Labour and the Lib Dems fall well short of a majority

• Labour + SNP+ Lib = 349 seats

Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems would secure a comfortable majority

• Con + Lib + UKIP + Others = 315 seats

Adding the DUP to the mix would take the parties agonisingly close to a majority

Voting intention over time

Although individual polls may put Labour or the Tories ahead, the trend shows them neck and neck, and has done so for some time. These polls are conducted on a sample across Great Britain and so miss the impact of the SNP, and constituency-level differences

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