Assembly Election Opinion/Exit Poll, Survey Result, Who will win in Assembly Elections

Election tracker:Vote-share for UPA, NDA and Others if Lok Sabha elections are held now ,NDA could cross 220 seats,National projection: NDA likely to get 211-231, UPA distant second with 107-127,election tracker ,2014 lok sabha elections ,bjp,congress ,

The UPA is expected to get just 107-127 seats. Many regional parties are expected to maintain their lead in their respective states. According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS National Election Tracker, Narendra Modi-led BJP is heading for a massive victory and the Congress is likely to be routed in most of parts of India. It is likely to be routed in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Delhi.
The survey was conducted in 18 states across India in the first two weeks of January.

National projection:
NDA (BJP + Shiv Sena + Shiromani Akali Dal) - 211-231
UPA (Congress + NCP + Kerala allies + JMM) - 107-127
Trinamool Congress (TMC) - 20-28
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) - 15-23
Left Front - 15-23
YSR Congress Party - 11-19
Biju Janata Dal (BJD) - 10-16
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - 10-16
Telugu Desam Party (TDP) - 9-15
Samajwadi Party (SP) - 8-14
Janata Dal United (JDU) - 7-13
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) - 7-13
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) - 6-12
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) - 6-10
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) - 4-8
Janata Dal Secular (JDS) - 4-8

According to the findings overall 27 per cent respondents have answered that they vote for the Congress while 34 per cent people want to vote for the BJP. The UPA allies have just 1 per cent backing and BJP allies have just 2 per cent backing nationally. The BSP 3 per cent, Left Front 4 per cent, Samajwadi Party 3 per cent, AAP 4 per cent and others have 22 per cent backing respectively.

While the BJP has gained 7 per cent votes in the last six months, the Congress has lost 1 per cent. If the elections are held in January 2014, the UPA is expected get 28 per cent, NDA is expected to get 36 per cent and others are expected to get 36 per cent votes respectively.

BJP leads in both rural and urban areas:

Survey findings show that the Congress seems to have lost its strong base in rural areas. It is very shocking news for the party, which always did well in rural India. In rural India, the BJP has got 34 per cent backing and the Congress has got 26 per cent support. While the Congress has lost 1 per cent support, the BJP has gained an impressive 9 per cent votes in rural areas. In urban areas, Congress has got 30 per cent support and the BJP has got 34 per cent support. Both Congress and BJP have gained 1 per cent each in urban areas.

The BJP is now ahead of the Congress even among lower class and poor voters who are traditionally Congress backers. A total of 34 per cent lower class and 32 per cent poor class voters are backing the BJP as against 26 per cent for the Congress. Among the Upper middle class and middle class, the BJP has got 37 per cent and 35 per cent support respectively. The Congress has got 26 per cent and 29 per cent backing respectively.

Only the elderly people prefer Congress over BJP
The BJP has got more support than the Congress across all age groups except the elderly people who are aged 56 years and above. In this age group, 31 per cent favour the Congress while the BJP has got 29 per cent support. Among the voters in the age group of 18-25 years 23 per cent back Congress and 38 per cent back BJP.

Among the voters in the age group of 26-35 years, 27 per cent back Congress and 35 per cent back BJP. Among the voters in the age group of 36-45 years, 26 per cent back Congress and 35 per cent back BJP. Among the voters, in the age group of 46-55 years, 28 per cent back Congress and 32 per cent back BJP.

BJP improves across castes and communities
Survey findings show that BJP has improved its position across castes and communities compared to last survey held in July 2013. Among the Hindu upper caste voters 54 per cent back BJP and just 18 per cent back the Congress. Among the dominant farmers, 20 per cent back Congress and 36 per cent back BJP.
Among upper OBCs 22 per cent back Congress and 38 per cent back the BJP. Among lower OBCs 23 per cent back Congress and 50 per cent back BJP. Among the SCs 29 per cent back Congress and 22 back BJP. Among the STs 41 per cent back Congress and 36 per cent back BJP. Among the Muslims 45 per cent back Congress and 13 per cent back BJP.

UPA unpopular, more in North
Overall 52 per cent across India feel that the UPA at the Centre should not get another chance. Only 26 per cent support another term for the UPA. In North India, 59 per cent are against another chance. Only 22 per cent in North back another term. In the South, 46 per cent feel that UPA should not get another chance. Only 23 per cent feel that it deserves another chance. In Central India, 53 per cent feel that UPA does not deserve another chance. Just 27 per cent back another term for the UPA.

In Western India, 52 per cent are opposed to the idea of another chance. Only 30 per cent back the idea. In Eastern India, 50 per cent oppose another term for the UPA and 30 per cent oppose it.

BJP's perception better

The BJP seems to have the best image at the moment on various issues. It leads in almost every parameter.

Most social media users prefer BJP
Among the social media users BJP is the most preferred choice. Among Facebook and Twitter users, the gap between the Congress and BJP widens. Overall 39 per cent social media users back the BJP. Only 22 per cent social media users back the Congress while 13 per cent back the AAP and 26 per cent back others.

Source: Election Tracker, CNN-IBN 

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