Assembly Election Opinion/Exit Poll, Survey Result, Who will win in Assembly Elections
ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll for lok sabha election 2014: AAP to bag 6 Delhi Lok Sabha seats, Modi top PM choice.
- Details
- Category: Opinion Poll
- Last Updated: Thursday, 22 January 2015 20:53
There is no doubt that the 1-year-old Aam Aadmi Party has been the highlight of the political discourse in the country and the results emerging here prove a point that it has impacted the Congress the most.
AAP has decided to contest seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi and all 10 seats in Haryana along with all the 90 assembly seats in the state. But has it risen up to the challenge in Mumbai and neighbouring regions? Let’s analyse below what the results have revealed:
Delhi:
Congress which won all the 7 seats in Delhi is projected to win not even a single seat this around as AAP has managed to sway the voters. Kejriwal’s new government in Delhi is expected to win 6 seats while the Bharatiya Janata Party might get just one.
National-Capital Region (2 seats in Uttar Pradesh - Ghaziabad & Gautam Buddha Nagar)
In the NCR seats of Uttar Pradesh, AAP & BJP are likely to win one seat each in Gautam Buddha Nagar and Ghaziabad. The BSP will lose its single seat. AAP could win in Ghaziabad. BJP chief Rajnath Singh has a big challenge at hand.
National-Capital Region (2 seats in Haryana -Gurgaon & Faridabad)
Kejriwal’s party hasn’t made much of an impact in Haryana as the figures reveal that BJP is likely to snatch Congress’ two seats in the region. Both AAP & Congress are left empty-handed here.
Mumbai and Thane:
It might be a matter of concern for AAP if they decided to field candidates in Mumbai in coming Lok Sabha elections. The question everyone in everyone’s mind is how the AAP will perform in India’s financial capital. If we examine Mumbai’s voting history, then the party has a challenge on its hands as the city is lethargic when it comes to voting. The Anna movement also didn’t find success out here.
Let’s look at the results. Despite little gain in vote share in Mumbai, BJP is seen gaining its hold in 6 seats with ally Shiv Sena. The Congress & NCP’s tally looks a little better out here as it is expected to win 3 seats while the AAP manages to garner just one.
The bad news here for the Congress is that it could give up its 5 seats when compared to the earlier general election. BJP has a big reason to cheer from the snap poll in this region as it increases its count from one to five.
Sampling Method used:
The Field work was done in the 21 Parliamentary constituencies in Delhi, NCR and Mumbai region. Three Assembly Constituencies in each Parliamentary constituency selected. In each Assembly Constituency, we selected five starting points according to regular Polling-Booth interval and used the right-hand rule.
Interview with the respondents were conducted using a structured questionnaire
Before going into the field the teams were briefed in details about the sampling plan, respondent’s selection, questions to be asked, comprehension issues, etc. The supervisors were in constant touch with the field manager to report status and also to seek clarifications when required. source:abplive.in