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Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad alliance has an edge over the BJP: Survey

The Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad alliance has an edge over the BJP and its allies in poll-bound Bihar and would romp to victory if polls were to be held today, according to a survey by AC-Neilson.


The grand alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal-United, which has been wooing OBC and Muslim voters, would bag 129 seats with a vote share of 43%.

Party wise Seat Projection
Party Seats Projected
JDU 99
RJD 24
BJP 87
HAM-Secular 16
others 7


The BJP, allied with Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of Ram Vilas Paswan, Former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awami Morcha -Secular (HAM-Secular) and Rashtriya Loktantrik Samata Party (RLSP) of Upenndra Prasad Kushwaha, would get 112 seats with a 32% vote share.

If elections were to be held today, the BJP would win 87 seats, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s group 16, the JD-U 99, and the RJD 24. Seven seats would go to others.

The Bihar assembly has 243 seats and the erstwhile BJP-JD-U alliance had swept the 2010 polls by bagging 206 seats. The JD-U had won 115 seats while the BJP won 91.

Alliance seats projection
Alliance Seats Projected Vote Share
JDU+RJD 129 43%
BJP+LJP+HAM-Secular+RLSP 112 32%

According to the survey, Kumar, with 52% support, is the most popular candidate for the chief minister’s post, followed by BJP’s Sushil Modi at 42%. Kumar also had a higher appeal among Muslim voters, according to the survey.

Overall, around 54% respondents felt Kumar should be given another chance to be chief minister, with 42% rooting for former deputy chief minister Modi.

According to the opinion poll, the NDA is expected to lead in Bhojpur and Magadh regions because of Manjhi’s appeal, while the RJD-JD-U alliance along with Congress is likely to dominate Seemanchal, east Bihar and Mithilanchal.

 In Tirhut, the RJD-JD-U alliance and the Congress may get 38 seats while the NDA could bag 32.

A total of 56% of respondents felt Manjhi’s rebellion against the JD-U would benefit the BJP while 38% said Kumar had benefited from the development.

The survey suggested that the JD-U and its allies would get 57% of the vote share and the BJP and its allies 41%.

If voting takes place right now, what will be vote distribution?
Alliance Vote Share
BJP+ 41%
JDU+ 57%
Others 2%



The survey covered 2,650 respondents in Patna, Gaya, East Champaran and Muzaffarpur.

SRC: hindustantimes

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