BSP marshalling itself to win the UP assembly Polls 2017 , UP assembly Polls, UP assembly Election 2017 , Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Narendra Modi ,mayawati, Uttar Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh latest political news

BSP marshalling itself to win the UP assembly Polls 2017 , UP assembly Polls, UP assembly Election 2017 , Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Narendra Modi ,mayawati, Uttar Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh latest political news

An enduring metaphor for the politics of Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the post-Mandal era is that of the flat bread on a tawa: the roti needs to be flipped every now and then.

In this case, every five years when the 20 crore-strong electorate opts for a change at the top. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) — down in the dumps for the last four years — is banking on this UP propensity for change and then some more as the race for the high seat in Lucknow begins.

Both the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) and the BSP will launch their campaigns by January 2016 although the current assembly's term ends only in 2017. The former will bank on the "good work" of the young chief minister Akhilesh Yadav while the BSP will go to the masses with a promise of a "new" Mayawati and a message of "Aman aur Chaiyn" (peace & rule of law), implying a law & order breakdown in India's most populated state. As things stand now, in this grand theatre both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) will have to settle for cameo roles unless of course they manage to convince the SP or the BSP into a pre-poll partnership or the political scenario in the state alters dramatically in the coming months.

A Mammoth Plan

The elephant clearly feels it has the edge. BSP offices are a bundle of activity these days — recovering from the thumping defeat in 2012 assembly polls at the hand of SP and the rout in the face of Narendra Modi wave in 2014 general elections. The grassroots cadre is getting on to the tried-and-tested method of evening meetings in villages, the middle-level busy popularising its candidates while the top leadership is setting the broad agenda.

"If polls are held today, we will easily get a majority in the assembly," says Swami Prasad Maurya, former BSP state chief, sitting in the spacious chamber of the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly. He leads a pack of 80 MLAs, down from 206 that the BSP won in the previous assembly.

Maurya feels the party machinery is so strong it doesn't have to indulge in brand marketing like the JD(U)-RJD-Congress combine in Bihar. "Our strategy is our organisation," Maurya says, adding that both the BJP and the Congress are spreading canards that they are tying up with BSP.

"This proves they both know we are winning," he says, clarifying that BSP will go it alone. Brijesh Pathak, a party MP in the Rajya Sabha, seconds that. "We are the only party in the country that would be able to furnish lists of our booth-level workers just like that," he says, underlining the organisational might of BSP. And as it transpires, the party can also furnish the list of its MLA candidates a good one and a half years before the poll bugle is blown. BSP has already finalised around 90 per cent of its candidates for all the 403 seats in the assembly.

For instance, in the state capital, the party candidates, or pratyashis — as they are known — are out canvassing already. The list goes like this: Rajeev Srivastav in Lucknow (Central), Yogesh Dixit in Lucknow (Cantt), Ajay Srivastav in Lucknow (North), Arman Khan in Lucknow (West) and Saroj Kumar Shukla in Lucknow (East). ET Magazine met with one of the aforementioned candidates who requested anonymity since he is not authorised to speak to media. "Behenji's (Mayawati's) public meetings will start by the New Year," he says, and that is when the show will begin.

The "pratyashi" claims the party will aim for a consolidated votebank of Dalits, Most Backward Classes (MBCs), Muslims and Brahmins. A Winning Combo? A Dalit-MBC-Muslim-Brahmin combo — a turbo-charged version of Mayawati's winning formula of Sarvjan Samaj in 2007 — is easier said than done, and BSP knows it.

For starters, 2012 and 2014 indicate the party had lost even its core Dalit voters. According to a CSDS post-poll survey, "the extraordinary polarisation of Jatav votes that was witnessed in favour of BSP in 2007 came down by 24 per cent in 2012". In 2014, the party's vote share plunged from the 2007 peak of 30.43 per cent to 19.62 per cent with its core voters ditching it for Modi's promise of achhe din. But that was an aberration, says BSP's Pathak who points out that even in 2012, the party managed to win almost 26 per cent vote share. "In the Lok Sabha polls, where we got 19 per cent vote share...the BJP candidates won with 21 per cent votes. We stood second almost everywhere," he says.

So the homework begins with shoring up the core Dalit vote base. Over the years, especially after Maya wooed Brahmins under the Sarvjan Samaj plank, the non-Jatav vote among the Dalits has been showing signs of moving away. That is being worked upon now with the return of Pasi leaders like RK Chaudhary whose community form the second biggest base after Jatavs from among the Dalits.

Chaudhary, who refused to speak for this story, is one among the BSP leaders who have already hit the ground running. Maurya also dismisses the ambitious Dalit outreach programme of BJP spearheaded by RSS cadres.

"The Bihar polls proved how many Dalits they managed to reach," he says. Mayawati's aggressive posturing in Parliament on boycotting Union minister — and MP from Ghaziabad, UP — Gen (Retd) VK Singh on his remarks on the burning of two Dalit children is the latest example of how BSP is leaving no stone unturned in keeping its core vote base close. Ditto her speech in Parliament on November 30 that sought to nip in the bud any moves by the BJP or the Congress to appropriate the legacy of BR Ambedkar.

 

The bhaichara (brotherhood) committees of 2007 — village-level panels with a Dalit and a Brahmin occupying the post of secretary and president — are a thing of the past, mostly because Mayawati feels there is no need for a separate mechanism to woo Brahmin votes.

The messaging this time will be top down. And Maurya says it straight: "We are the only party that is arguing for reservations for the poor among the upper castes." A point underlined by Mayawati in her speech. Professor Badri Narayan of JNU, who has authored many books on Dalit politics, says the BSP could hit the jackpot once again with Brahmins who make up almost 10 per cent of the population in UP.

"Brahmins have no representation in SP, and not even in BJP, which is largely a party of Thakurs and Kurmis in UP. Mayawati wants to expand the idea of 'Sarvjan'. Through her unequivocal support of upper-caste reservation, she is strengthening her social engineering," he says. Muslim-Dalit Bhaichara But the million-dollar question remains if Muslims are willing to ditch the SP. The answer is No. Atleast not yet.

The Muzaffarnagar riots of 2014, the Dadri lynching and SP's last-minute ditching of the Mahagatbandhan in Bihar are talking points in the community, but just that. "The ideal situation would be the coming together of all anti-BJP forces like in Bihar," says Maulana Khalid Rasheed Firangi Mahali, a prominent Sunni leader of the state. "The SP government has given a lot of representation to Muslims, but a lot more needs to be done," he says, adding "but this is no ordinary election. There is a sense of insecurity in the country".

As far as the community is concerned, a range of factors — debate over intolerance, Muzaffarnagar, the furore over beef and BJP's communal campaign in Bihar — have already made the next UP poll akin to a national election. Whoever enjoys the last-minute edge, the community could side with them, whether SP or BSP, in its quest to stop BJP. Small wonder then that both BSP and SP are busy accusing the other of cozying up to BJP. Maurya accuses both BJP and SP of being together in the politics of riots. Hence the repeated emphasis on "Aman aur Chaiyn" while reminding the electorate of Mayawati's record of zero riots during her previous terms.

Akhilesh Yadav counters that saying he did everything a chief minister could do in Muzaffarnagar. "We should understand who benefits from communal violence? It hurts us the most because we are in the government," he says. For the BSP, the additional headache is how to bridge the Dalit-Muslim divide in Western UP where the social fabric has been torn after the Muzaffarnagar riots after the Jat-Muslim clash dragged in the Dalits. "It needs more healing. But things have changed, and both Dalits and Muslims know only a BSP government can mend the fence," says BSP's Pathak.

SP, while cornered on Muzaffarnagar, points to BSP's last-minute support of the bill on a unified Goods and Services Tax (GST) alleging the party has a tacit understanding with the Modi government. "Perceptions matter a lot. This GST thing could be a potent tool for the SP to label the BSP as pro-BJP," says Sudhir Panwar of Lucknow University. Maya vs Akhilesh BSP too knows perception matters. The "new" Mayawati being packaged is the one who talks peace, equity and development. The party is painfully aware of its image as one with a fetish for symbolism. So no more statues of Ambedkar or inspiration parks (Dalit Prerna Sthal) this time around.

"Behenji herself has announced that we don't need to make any more memorials. Those who we wanted to reclaim their rightful place in history, we have honoured them all during our previous term," says BSP's Maurya. Akhilesh pooh-poohs that claim cracking a joke about statues built, under-construction and covered up — a reference to an Election Commission order to cover all elephant statues in UP during the 2012 polls. He also disses the BSP claim of "Aman aur Chaiyn".

"If she had such an iron grip on law & order, how come she got such a drubbing in the previous assembly polls?" he asks. Akhilesh says his government has been a victim in the perception battle. "When the Badaun incident happened, politicians across the country slammed us. But when the truth came out, none of these gents bothered to correct their statements," he says. Akhilesh believes the Bihar results are encouraging — SP's last minute desertion of the Mahagatbandhan notwithstanding — in that performing governments are being returned to power.

SP will go alone in the polls, he says, adding that he won't be surprised if the BSP and the BJP come together since they have done it before. BSP leaders aver past alliances are a bad memory for the party. "BJP's communal face is out there for all to see. The issue that is here and now in UP is the 'jungle raj' of SP," says Maurya. 

SRC:ET

 

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