CNN-IBN Pre-poll survey: BJP set to rout Congress in Chhattisgarh, win 61-71 seats, CNN-IBN Survey result,CNN-IBN,BJP,INC, Chhattisgarh, Survey Result.

CNN-IBN Pre-poll survey: BJP set to rout Congress in Chhattisgarh, win 61-71 seats.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has strengthened its stranglehold over Chhattisgarh and pushed the Congress out of the power game. The party is on an upswing and will win 61-71 seats in the 90-member Assembly, pushing the Congress to a distant second with only 16-24 seats, according to the pre-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week.

The survey shows that the Congress is a big loser as the party had won 38 seats in the 2008 elections, while the BJP's score was 49. The Bahujan Samaj Party may get 0-2 seats while smaller parties are likely to have a tally of 1-5 seats. Propelled by a 6 percentage point increase in its vote share, the BJP is all set to decimate the Congress, which is facing the prospects of a 7 percentage point drop in its share.

In the 2008 Assembly elections the BJP got 40.3 per cent of the votes but in October 2013 the party has the support of 46 per cent, while the Congress has slumped to 32 per cent from 38.6 per cent in the last polls.

Opinion poll | Candidtate list | Election Schedule | Delhi News | National News .
In more good news for Chief Minister Raman Singh, pro-incumbency is the state is almost as high as 2008. Then, 51 per cent of the voters wanted to give the state government another chance, and now it is 47 per cent. Over two-thirds (66 per cent) are satisfied with the BJP government's performance, a fall of 6 points from the 2008 level.

Governance, development work and food security are the main reasons cited by those who are satisfied with the Raman Singh government. The food security law of Chhattisgarh government has benefitted many, with 80 per cent saying they receive 35 kg food grain per month at highly subsidised rates, while among the BPL households the figure is as high as 93.

Satisfaction with Raman Singh's performance as Chief Minister also continues to be very high with 69 per cent backing him. Singh remains the most preferred choice for CM, particularly among the upper castes, leading Congress leader Ajit Jogi by almost 18 percentage points .

Factionalism in Congress was also a part of the problems. More people agree than disagree with the statement that the Congress has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves, and this sentiment is stronger among the traditional supporters of the party. In the event of the Congress coming to power, most want Jogi as the chief minister.

While voters see no difference between the Congress and BJP when it comes to corruption, the latter is viewed as being much better for development and for tackling Naxalism. How Chhattisgarh is likely to vote North Chhattisgarh (34 seats) will see a good contest between the BJP and Congress.

While the BJP is ahead, the Congress is not too far behind. But the BJP is ahead of the Congress in Central Chhattisgarh (43 seats) and South Chhattisgarh (13 seats).

In the Naxalism-affected areas, too, the BJP leads the Congress, while in the other regions the ruling party is way ahead of its rival. Seat projection by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute

SEAT PROJECTIONS FOR CHHATTISGARH

 

Total seats: 90

	Seats	Seats	Votes	Votes	Votes
Party	2013 (Estimate)	2008 (Actual)	2008 (Actual)	Oct 2013 (Estimate)	Change since 2008
BJP	61-71	50	40.3	46	-7
Congress	16-24	38	38.6	32	+6
BSP	0-2	2	6.1	6	0
Others	1-5	0	15.0	16	+1

 

 

CHHATTISGARH PRE-POLL SURVEY 2013 FINDINGS

 

Methodology for Chhattisgarh Pre Poll Survey 2013

 

The findings presented here are based on a Pre Poll survey conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, in Chhattisgarh for CNN-IBN and The Week. A total of 1861 persons, randomly selected from the latest electoral rolls, were interviewed between 13th October and 20th October 2013 in 99 locations in 25 constituencies spread across the State.

The Assembly Constituencies were selected using the Probability Proportionate to Size Method. Four polling stations within each of the 25 sampled constituencies were selected using the Systematic Random Sampling (SRS) technique. The respondents were also selected using the SRS method from the most updated electoral rolls of the 100 selected polling stations.

Keeping in mind, the probability of non completion of interviews amongst all the selected respondents we adopted the technique of over sampling of respondents. A total of 2500 randomly selected electors were targeted for interviews in the field, of which 1861 interviews were successfully completed in the stipulated time. The survey could not be conducted in one polling station (see Table 1).

 

Table 1: Methodology of Pre Poll Survey

Survey details
Time period when survey was conducted	Oct 13 - Oct 20
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed	25
Number of Polling Stations surveyed	99*
Number of respondents targeted	2500
Total respondents achieved (Sample size)	1861

*A total of 100 polling stations were sampled (four per AC) but the survey could not be conducted in one polling station

 

The social profile of the respondents interviewed largely matched the demographic profile of the State. Women comprise 44 per cent of the sample. 13 percent of the sample consists of Scheduled Caste respondents and 31 per cent is made up of Scheduled Tribes.

These numbers are by and large similar to actual Census figures and reflect the representative nature of the sample, although there is an underrepresentation of women which was taken into account while doing the analysis (see Table 1a).

 

Table 1a: Sample profile

Social Background	Census 2011/2001	Pre Poll Survey 2013
Urban	23.2	20.1
Women	49.7	44.4
SC	12.8	12.7
ST	30.6	30.7
Muslim	2.0	3.0
Christian	1.9	2.9

Note: All figures are in percent; figures for Muslims and Christians from Census 2001

 

The interviews were conducted by specially trained field investigators. The respondents were interviewed in the face-to-face interview situation using a structured interview schedule in Hindi. Respondents were mostly interviewed at their home, preferably alone. All voting questions were asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box.

 

The estimate of vote shares for different political parties are based on a careful analysis of the respondents’ stated preference of voting for a party as marked on the ballot paper, which carried the elections symbols of all the major political parties in the State. Since all surveys suffer from the problem of over-estimation of votes for big parties and underestimation for smaller parties, the estimate of vote shares was made after carefully adjusting the vote share of smaller parties and independents as base. A comparison of the proportion of important social categories in the total survey sample of a State with their actual proportion in the population of that State was also made while deciding the estimate of vote shares.

 

The fieldwork of the survey in Chhattisgarh was coordinated by Anupama Saxena and Shamshad Ansari (Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya, Bilaspur). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi which included Anuradha Singh, Ashish Ranjan, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Nitin Mehta, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. Prof. Suhas Palshikar gave his inputs and suggestions. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey.

 

KEY FINDINGS

 

Table 2a: Estimated Votes for Assembly 2013: BJP gains, Cong declines

 

Party	2008 (Actual)	Oct 2013 (Estimate)	Estimated Change since 2008
INC	38.6	32	-7
BJP	40.3	46	+6
BSP	6.1	6	0
Others	15.0	16	+1

Note: All figures are in percent; Estimate for 2013 based on weighted data from pre poll survey.

Question asked in the survey: If the Chhattisgarh assembly elections are held tomorrow then which party will you vote for? Please mark your preference on this sheet of paper and put it in the box.

 

 

Table 2b: BJP voters a little less sure than Cong voters about their vote and may change preference

 

My vote preference will..	Overall	BJP voters	INC voters
Stay the same even on voting day	58	50	66
Can change after seeing candidates	14	15	11
Can’t say	28	36	23

Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for this question is 1639. Weighted data.

Question asked in the survey: (If answered vote question) The party for which you just voted, are you going to vote for the same on the day of voting or your decision may change on seeing the candidates?

 

Table 3: Pro-incumbency in Chhattisgarh almost as high as 2008

 

Should the ruling State govt. get another chance?	2008 BJP govt.	2013 BJP govt.
Yes	51	47
No	26	25
Can’t say/No opinion	23	28

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked in the survey: Do you think the current BJP government of Chhattisgarh should get another chance?        

 

 

Table 4a: Over two-thirds satisfied with the BJP government’s performance

 

Satisfaction level with State Government’s performance	2008 BJP govt.	2013 BJP govt.
Satisfied	72	66
Dissatisfied	14	20
Can’t say/No opinion	14	14

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked in the survey: What is your assessment of the work done by the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in the last five

years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with it? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)

 

Table 4b: Development and food security were the main reasons cited by those who are satisfied with the govt.

Reasons for satisfaction with the State govt. among those who are satisfied with it.
Good governance and Development	30
Food security, cheap food grain	15
Better roads	5
More employment opportunities	4
Better power supply	3
Other smaller reasons	12
Can’t say	31

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1233. Weighted data.

Question asked: (If Fully satisfied or Somewhat satisfied) Why are you satisfied with the State BJP government? (Record answer and consult codebook later for coding)

 

Table 4c: Food security law of Chhattisgarh govt. has benefitted many

Does your household receive 35 kg food grain per month at highly subsidized rates from the Government?	Overall	BPL households
Yes	80	93
No	20	7

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Does your household receive 35 kg food grain per month at highly subsidized rates from the government?        

 

Table 5: Satisfaction with Raman Singh’s performance as CM also continues to be very high

Satisfaction level with CM’s performance	2008	2013
Satisfied	75	69
Dissatisfied	12	19
Can’t say/No opinion	13	12

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked in the survey: How would you assess the performance of Raman Singh as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh over the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)

 

HOW IS CHHATTISGARH LIKELY TO VOTE?

 

Table 6: Regional pattern

Regions	Mood
North Chhattisgarh (34 seats)	BJP ahead but Cong not far behind
Central Chhattisgarh (43 seats)	BJP comfortably ahead of Cong
South Chhattisgarh (13 seats)	BJP way ahead of Congress

Note: Assessment based on pre poll survey; North Chhattisgarh includes districts of Koria, Surajpur, Balrampur, Sarguja, Jashpur, Raigarh, Korba, Bilaspur, Mungeli, and parts of Janjgir-Champa; Central Chhattisgarh includes a part of Raigarh, parts of Janjgir-Champa, Mahasamund, Balodbazar, Raipur, Gariyaband, Balod, Durg, Bemetara, Kabirdham, Rajnandgaon and parts of Dhamtari; South Chhattisgarh includes Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Bastar (Jagdalpur), Dantewada, Bijapur, Sukma and a part of Dhamtari.

 

Table 7: Mood in Naxalism affected and non-Naxalism affected areas

Type of area	Mood
Naxalism affected areas	On the whole BJP leads Congress
Non-Naxalism affected	BJP way ahead of Congress

Note: Naxalism affected areas include the districts of  Koria, Surajpur, Balrampur, Sarguja, Jashpur, Kabirdham, Rajnandgaon, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Bastar (Jagdalpur), Dantewada, Bijapur and Sukma.

 

Table 8: Tribal vote: Gains and Losses compared to 2008

Tribes	INC	BJP	Others
Gond	Losing marginally	Losses	Gains
Other ST	Losses	Gains	Gains

Note: Assessment based on weighted data from pre poll survey

 

Table 9: Caste and community vote: Gains and Losses compared to 2008

Castes and Communities

	Trend
Upper Caste	BJP comfortably ahead of Cong and gaining; Cong has declined further
Upper OBC	BJP continues to be ahead of Cong comfortably
Lower OBC	BJP ahead and gaining since 2008; Cong has gone down further
SC	Cong recovers and ahead of BJP but still a close contest

Note: Assessment based on weighted data from pre poll survey

 

Table 10: Gap between BJP and Congress widest among first time voters

Age group	BJP	INC
18-22 years (first time voters)	55	37
23-25 years	41	32
26-35 years	49	33
36-45 years	48	32
46-55 years	44	28
56+ years	44	36

Note: All figures are in percent; Rest voted for other parties. Sample size for vote preference question is 1599. Weighted data.

 

LEADERSHIP

 

Table 11a: Raman Singh most preferred choice for CM, particularly among Upper Castes

Chief Minister Preference  (open ended question)	Overall	Upper Castes
Raman Singh	32	43
Ajit Jogi	14	10
Charandas Mahant	2	1
Others	10	11
Can’t say	42	35

Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Who would you like to see as the next Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh? (Record name and consult codebook)

 

Table 11b: Popularity of both Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi is down since 2008, but Raman is still way ahead of his main rival 

Year and Election	PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER (open ended question)
	Raman Singh	Ajit Jogi
2003 VS	1	31
2004 LS	28	32
2008 VS	38	23
2009 LS	40	21
2013 VS	32	14

Note: All figures in Columns 2 and 3 are in percent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Figures from CSDS Surveys during Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Sample size in 2003 was 1406; Sample size in 2004 was 920; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2009 was 617; Sample size in 2013 is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Who would you like to see as the next Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh? (Record name and consult codebook)

 

Table 12: Even in direct face off question, Raman leads Jogi by a wide margin but gap narrows among STs and among SCs Jogi leads

Raman or Jogi: Who should be CM?	Overall	Upper Caste	SC	ST
Raman Singh	41	48	34	37
Ajit Jogi	25	18	39	29
None of the two	10	12	2	12
Can’t say	24	22	25	22

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: If you were to choose between Ajit Jogi and Raman Singh, whom would you prefer as the next chief minister of Chhattisgarh?

 

Table 13a: More people agree than disagree with the statement that Congress has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves; sentiment stronger among traditional Congress supporters.

Statement – “Congress party has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves”	Overall	Traditional Congress supporters
Agree	33	46
Disagree	14	16
No opinion	53	38

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Now I will read out some statements relating to Congress leader Ajit Jogi. You tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the statements. (If agree then probe whether fully or somewhat, if disagree then probe fully or somewhat) – a. Congress party has not given Ajit Jogi the respect he deserves.

 

Table 13b: In the event of Cong coming to power, most want Jogi as CM; particularly Cong voters

Who should be CM if Congress comes to power?	Overall	INC voters	BJP voters
Ajit Jogi	32	47	25
Charandas Mahant	15	19	16
Ravindra Choubey	2	2	2
Someone else from Congress	5	2	2
Can’t say	47	30	55

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: If the Congress comes to power after the assembly election, then which Congress leader you would like to see as Chief Minister – Ajit Jogi, Charandas Mahant, Ravindra Choubey or someone else?

 

PARTY PERCEPTION

 

Table 14: No difference between Cong and BJP, but BJP viewed as being much better for development

 

Perception of parties	INC	BJP	Both	Neither	No opinion
More corrupt	16	16	36	2	30
More nepotistic	16	13	24	5	42
More faction ridden	10	12	30	3	45
Better for tackling Naxalism	17	19	9	11	44
Better for Chhattisgarh’s development	18	30	9	7	36

All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Now I will ask you to compare the two major parties of Chhattisgarh – Congress and BJP. In your opinion which one of these parties is most – a. Corrupt b. Nepotistic c. Faction ridden; And which of these parties is better for d.Tackling naxalism e. Chhattisgarh’s Development

 

GOVERNANCE AND OTHER ISSUES

 

Table 15a: Mixed assessment of Raman Singh’s governance; rated negatively on health, transport law and order and irrigation fronts

 

Over the last five years…	Improved	Worsened	Remained same
Condition of roads in has…	47	39	13
Condition of govt. hospitals has…	24	44	22
Supply of electricity has…	52	32	14
Irrigation facilities	27	36	20
Condition of govt. schools has…	42	34	17
Supply of drinking water has…	52	30	15
Public bus services	7	35	17
Law and order situation has…	21	25	21
Employment generation has..	35	22	21

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest had no opinion; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Now I will read out few things. You tell me whether each of these has improved, worsened or remained same in your area during last five years of BJP government?

 

Table 15b:  8 out of 10 say prices have increased in the last five years

 

Over the last five years…	Increased	Decreased	Remained same
Prices of essential commodities	88	2	5
Corruption has…	68	6	9

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest had no opinion; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: And what about these, have these increased, decreased or remained the same in the last five years?

 

Table 16: No surprise then that price rise one of the most important election issues

 

Most important election issue (open ended question)	Overall
Development and governance of Chhattisgarh	11
Price rise	10
Employment	6
Condition of roads	4
Corruption	3
Farmers’ issues/problems	2
Food security	2
Water and electricity	1
Education and health	1
Naxalism	1
Other issues	15
Can’t say	44

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: While deciding whom to vote for in the upcoming Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, which will be the single most  important election issue for you? (Record exactly and consult codebook later for coding

 

Table 17: Naxalism not a top of the mind issue

 

While voting in the upcoming assembly elections how important will the issue of Naxalism be for you?	Overall	Naxalism affected areas
Very important	14	15
Somewhat important	22	31
Not at all important	17	17
Can’t say	47	37

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: While voting in the upcoming assembly elections how important will the issue of Naxalism be for you – very important, somewhat important, not at all important?

 

STATE OR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT: WHO HAS A BETTER IMAGE?

 

Table 18: Blame for price rise less on the State govt. and more on the Central govt.

 

Which govt. is more responsible for price rise – State or Central?	Overall
State govt. responsible	10
Central govt. responsible	19
Both responsible	39
Neither responsible	1
Can’t say	31

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question: Which government do you think is more responsible for rising prices – the Central government or your State government?

 

Table 19: Both Central and State governments viewed as being equally corrupt

 

Corruption rating of Central and State Governments	Very corrupt	Somewhat corrupt	Not much corrupt	Not at all corrupt	No opinion
INC-led UPA govt.	21	26	5	5	43
Chhattisgarh’s BJP govt.	16	28	12	8	36

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; this question was asked separately for each government;

Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Questions: On the issue of corruption, what is your view about the current Congress led UPA Government. Is it-  very corrupt, somewhat corrupt, very little corrupt or not at all corrupt? On the issue of corruption, what is your view about the current Raman Singh and BJP led Chhattisgarh Government.  Is it very corrupt, somewhat corrupt, very little corrupt or not at all corrupt?

 

Table 20: Much greater satisfaction with BJP led State govt. than Cong led Central govt.

 

Governments’ performance	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	No opinion
INC-led UPA govt.	46	22	32
Chhattisgarh’s BJP govt.	66	20	14

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; this question was asked separately for each government;

Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Questions asked in the survey: What is your assessment of the work done by the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with it? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over the last four and half years? (Probe further whether ‘fully’ or ‘somewhat’ satisfied or dissatisfied).

 

Table 21: Much greater satisfaction with CM’s performance than PM’s

 

Leaders’ performance	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	No opinion
Manmohan Singh as PM	49	22	29
Raman Singh as CM	69	19	12

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; this question was asked separately for each leader;

Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Questions asked in the survey: How would you assess the performance of Raman Singh as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh

over the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further  whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) What is your assessment of the performance of Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister? Are you satisfied with his performance or dissatisfied? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)

 

Table 22: Most voters to vote looking at both State and Centre’s performance

 

Will vote looking at…	Overall
State govt.’s performance	22
Central govt.’s performance	9
Both	33
Neither	5
No opinion	31

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked in the survey: Some people vote keeping in mind the performance of the state government while others vote keeping in mind the performance of the central government. While voting in the upcoming state assembly elections, whose performance will you consider the most?

 

OTHER ISSUES

 

Table 23: Level of complete satisfaction with BJP MLA’s performance greater than with Cong MLA’s performance

 

MLA’s performance	INC MLA seats  in survey sample	BJP MLA seats in survey sample
Fully satisfied	19	32
Somewhat satisfied	33	25
Somewhat dissatisfied	3	10
Fully dissatisfied	23	22
No opinion	22	11

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked in the survey: What is your opinion about the performance of the sitting MLA of your constituency? Would you say that you are satisfied or dissatisfied with her/his performance? (Probe further whether ‘fully’ or ‘somewhat’ satisfied or dissatisfied).

 

Table 24: BJP’s yatra doing better than Cong’s yatra

 

Political Yatras	Aware about it	Came to my area
BJP’s Vikas Yatra	66	38
Cong’s Parivartan Yatra	47	16

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; rest were not aware/did not know which party’s it is/said it did not come to their area; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Questions asked: Have you heard/read about the Vikas yatra? (If heard) Did this yatra come to your area? Have you heard/read about the Parivartan yatra? (If heard) Did this yatra come to your area?

 

Table 25a: 6 out of 10 have heard of Naxal attack on Cong leaders

 

Have you heard about the deadly Naxal attack on the convoy of the Congress leaders	Overall	Naxalism affected areas
Yes	64	80
No	36	20

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Have you heard about the deadly Naxal attack on the convoy of the Congress leaders?

 

Table 25b: Divided blame for attack among those who have heard

 

Whom do you hold responsible for this attack?	Overall	Naxalism affected areas
Chhattisgarh Government	18	18
Congress leaders for taking the route	13	11
Both govt. and Cong leaders	10	10
Naxals	11	9
Ajit Jogi	3	5
Can’t say	45	47

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1196. Weighted data.

Question asked: ( If heard of the attack) Whom do you hold responsible for this attack – Chhattisgarh Govt. for not providing ample security or the Congress leaders themselves for choosing the wrong route?

 

Table 25c: Majority can’t say if Cong will gain sympathy vote

 

Do you think Congress will gain sympathy votes from this attack during the upcoming elections?	Overall	Naxal affected areas
Yes	33	36
No	16	12
Can’t say	52	52

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1196. Weighted data.

Question asked: (If heard of the attack) Do you think Congress will gain sympathy votes from this attack during the upcoming elections?         

 

Table 26: Justice and dialogue is key to tackling Naxalism

 

Naxal problem should be dealt with by…	Overall	STs	Naxal affected areas
Deploying security forces in large numbers and use maximum force.	12	12	18
By providing justice and addressing the grievances of Adivasis	27	33	37
By pursuing the possibility of a ceasefire and dialogue with the Maoists	14	9	13
Don’t know	47	46	32

Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; rest of the respondents had no opinion; Sample size is 1861. Weighted data.

Question asked: Now I am going to read out three statements about Naxalism. Please tell me which statement do you agree with most? 1. Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by deploying security forces in large numbers and using maximum force.

 2. Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by providing justice and addressing the grievances of Adivasis.

so that they no longer have reason to support the Maoists.  3. Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by pursuing the possibility of a ceasefire and dialogue with the Maoists.

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