Assembly Election Opinion/Exit Poll, Survey Result, Who will win in Assembly Elections 2016

Bihar poll tracker: BJP-LJP 22-30 seats, JDU 4-8, RJD, Cong 2-6 each,Election Tracker: BJP ahead in Jharkhand,State opinion Poll For Lok sabha election,Opinion Poll Predict by CNN-IBN, Lok Sabha Election Opinion poll, Lok sabha, Opinion poll, exit poll,HI

Ram Vilas Paswan led LJP, which recently joined the NDA, is piggybacking on the BJP wave in Bihar which has 40 Lok Sabha seats.

VOTE SHARE
The BJP is expected to get 38 per cent vote in Bihar as against just 14 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The JDU which snapped ties with the BJP in June 2013 is expected to get 20 per cent votes. The Congress is expected to get 13 per cent, the RJD 12 per cent, the LJP 4 per cent, the AAP 2 per cent and the others are expected to get 11 per cent votes.
The massive upper caste consolidation behind BJP is a clearly visible factor in Bihar. The RJD and the JDU have not been able to retain their core votes in the same way; Muslim and Dalit votes are divided among the parties. A record 76 per cent upper caste voters are backing the BJP. Even among the OBCs, 48 per cent are backing the BJP. Just 30 per cent Muslims are backing the Congress and 22 per cent of them are backing the ruling JDU.

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The proportion of those blaming the JDU for break up of alliance with the BJP has also declined steadily over last seven months. Now just 23 per cent blame the JDU and 35 per cent blame both the JDU and BJP for this.
The RJD voters seem to be keener for an alliance with the Congress than the JDU voters; however, the RJD voters are also more supportive of a JDU-Congress alliance than the JDU voters are of an RJD-Cong alliance.
NARENDRA MODI LEADS PM RACE
BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi is leading the PM race in Bihar with 41 per cent votes. Modi has gained 2 per cent more votes since the January survey. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has come a distant second with 14 per cent backing. Nitish Kumar is a strong Third Front contender for the post of the PM. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has got 10 per cent backing for the post of PM. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has got just 3 per cent backing in the state for the post of PM. However, in a direct face off, gap between Modi and Nitish narrows. While 48 per cent back Modi for PM, 32 per cent back Nitish for PM.

HIGH LEVEL SATISFACTION WITH NITISH GOVERNMENT
A very high 73 per cent respondents feel that they are happy with the JDU government led by Nitish Kumar. Only 21 per cent answer that they are not satisfied with it. The satisfaction with the UPA government's performance has also gone up significantly in Bihar in last one month. Also 49 per cent respondents claim that they are happy with the UPA government at the Centre and 45 per cent respondents claim that they are not satisfied with it. PM Manmohan Singh's performance is rated much more positively in Bihar than in the last survey conducted in January, this year. While 50 per cent say they are happy with him, 42 per cent say they are not happy with him. The anti-UPA sentiment is still strong in Bihar but declines since January. 58 per cent respondents feel that the UPA should not get another chance at the Centre. Just 21 per cent feel that it should get another chance.

There is a clear Narendra Modi effect in Bihar. Emphasis on the PM candidate as a main voting consideration has also gone up in Bihar. 43 per cent respondents say that they vote for a party and 22 per cent claim that they go by local candidate.

Source: IBNLive,Lokniti,CSDS

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