ABP News-Nielsen Opinion poll: BJP with allies closer to majority in Jharkhand; Arjun Munda most preferred Choice for CM’s post

 ABP News-Nielsen Opinion poll: BJP with allies closer to majority in Jharkhand; Arjun Munda most preferred Choice for CM’s post

New Delhi: BJP may fall short of majority in the upcoming Jharkhand Assembly poll, according to ABP News-Nielsen’s latest Opinion Poll.

BJP is contesting the assembly election as National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with All Jharkhand Students Union (Ajsu) Party, Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) and Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) as its partners.

 BJP President Amit Shah has said if his party would be given a chance to form the government in Jharkhand then it would be developed on a par with other BJP ruled states. The BJP like other state is here riding upon Modi wave.

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress had called off their alliance last month end after failing to work out a seat-sharing agreement.

In 2009, JMM won 18 seats, 10 of which came from Santhal Pargana. The Congress and JVM (the alliance collapsed after the elections) together won 25 seats (Congress 14 and JVM 11).

In the April Lok Sabha elections, Congress drew a blank, while JMM won two seats. The BJP won the remaining 12 seats.  The party is now projected to win 30 seats out of a total of 81, reveals our Opinion Poll.

The Survey has predicted 30 seats for BJP, 7 seats for Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, 6 seats for Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, 15 seats for Congress. BJP, JMM had won 18 seats each in 2009 assembly polls.

BJP-led NDA combine is likely to win 37 seats in total. AJSU is projected to win 6 seats while LJP is managing to garner just one seat. RJD in the state is seen winning 3 seats while JD-U is getting 5. The Cong-RJD-JD-U combine is likely to bag 23 seats in total.

Arjun Munda (35%) of BJP seems to be the most preferred candidate for the position of Chief Minister of Jharkhand, rather all top three contenders are from BJP. Yashwant Sinha gets 22% votes; Raghubar Das gets 10% votes. Current CM Hemant Soren is seen getting 8%.

Amongst those who intend to vote for BJP Arjun Munda is the top contender with 47% in his favour followed by Yashwant Sinha with 30% in his favour. Amongst JMM supporters Hemant Soren is the preferred choice. Amongst Congress, RJD and BSP supporters there is no clear choice for the candidate preference and is distributed along party lines.

At an overall level 53% respondents were satisfied with the performance of the present CM Hemant Soren. “People will support us to form a stable government because of our performance in the past 14 months,” Hemant on Friday in ABP News’ Special Programme Ghoshanapatra

However, a massive 62% of respondents think that BJP-AJSU alliance is most likely to form government in the State. We observed mixed opinion with 47% respondents in favour and 41% against this strategy of involving Narendra Modi in even State elections.

Major issue that the people are facing is that of 'unemployment' - which is also influencing their choice of party. Second is corruption while third is price rise.

About half (49%) of all respondents do not think that the benefit of forming Jharkhkand has gone only to the upper castes and not to the tribals.  The Opinion Poll is based on interviews of 7,209 randomly respondents conducted between 11th November, 2014 to 17th November, 2014.

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