Delhi exit polls add to confusion, range make it less right.
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- Category: Delhi political News
- Last Updated: Thursday, 22 January 2015 20:52
Delhi exit polls add to confusion, huge range make them less accurate:
New Delhi: The exit polls, which are predicting the exit of Congress from Delhi, have failed to give a clearer picture. Each poll has given a different figure and the difference between these polls is huge which has led to more confusion.
These polls have also given a face saver to the ruling Congress to rubbish all such surveys.
Both the Congress and the BJP are jittery over the prospects of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) doing well and creating a hung assembly in the national capital.
The BJP is obviously happy about the exit polls which predict its victory. However, the same party is rubbishing the exit polls which are predicting a hung assembly in Delhi.
The exactly opposite response of the political parties to the exit polls have also added to more confusion and the common people have now started doubting them. Some even call them a comedy show.
Of the four surveys, two have predicted the BJP victory and the remaining two predicted hung assembly.
If you believe Today's Chanakya, the AAP will emerge as the single largest party in Delhi with 31 seats. It has projected 29 seats for the main opposition BJP. Today's Chanakya also predicts the rout of the Congress in Delhi. It predicts that the Congress will get just 10 seats.
But, the India Today-ORG poll predicts the exactly opposite result. It has projected just 6 seats for the AAP. According to India Today-ORG the BJP will come to power with 41 seats and the Congress will sit in the opposition with just 20 seats. This poll has gladdened the heart of BJP.
AC Nielsen's exit poll also predicts the BJP victory in Delhi. It has given 37 seats to the BJP. It predicts the Congress will win just 16 and the AAP will win 15 seats.
According to the C-Voter exit poll, the ruling Congress is projected to get 20 seats. The BJP will emerge as the single largest party with 31 seats and the Aam Admi Party is expected to win 15 seats.
What makes these exit polls so confusing? According to Dr Sandeep Shastri, noted psephologist and national coordinator Lokniti, a leading poll survey organisation, there are many reasons for the wide rage of variations. He said, "It could be either in account of methodological error, choice of interview locations or basis of conversion of votes into seats."
The Congress which is demanding a ban on poll surveys is now claiming that the wide range of variation in the pre-poll and exit poll surveys has proved that its demand is genuine.
According to some pollsters whenever and wherever a third political party emerges stronger in a hitherto two way contest, predicting the outcome becomes tough. The AAP has now become a pollster's nightmare.
Only when the counting gets over on December 8, we will come to know who got it right and who got it wrong.
Source:ibnlive.in